The Radar
Sixty tests, checked against the news every Sunday
Latest scan, November 1st, 2026: 63 events read · 60 nothing new · 3 no change
Every node in the tree carries a test that says exactly what would count as it having happened. Once a week a fresh session searches for what the world did against each of those tests and writes down what it found, whether or not anything moved.
The scan may change a number by a small amount with a public source behind it, and may mark a node as having happened when two independent records agree. Anything beyond that, it leaves for me and says so. Each record is a file in the repository, written once and never edited; the site refuses to build if one of them does not add up.
Found in our solar system
sources last read November 1st, 2026Since 27 October 2026 the scan also reads a fixed list of 7 primary sources (the Minor Planet Center, the observatories, the space agencies, the week's planetary science papers) for discoveries and firsts in our own solar system: a new body, a first image, a first measurement, a mission arriving somewhere. None of it moves a number. Each find is written down here, and the ones worth a story get a post in the news.
- October 28th, 2026 NASA's Lucy becomes the first spacecraft to enter the Jupiter Trojan asteroid region
NASA reported on October 28th, 2026 that Lucy, launched on October 16th, 2021, has entered the region of primitive bodies known as the Jupiter Trojan asteroids, the first spacecraft to do so; the post gives no exact day of entry. Touches no step of the tree.
- October 27th, 2026 The Rubin Observatory's first dwarf planet candidate, 2026 ED138
On October 27th, 2026 the Rubin Observatory announced 2026 ED138, an icy body found on October 13th, 2026 about 46 times as far from the Sun as Earth is and judged 600 to 1,500 kilometres across, which would make it a dwarf planet once its size is confirmed in the infrared; the Minor Planet Center published its orbit the same day. Touches no step of the tree.
- October 26th, 2026 Comet-like activity found on the main-belt asteroid 6993 (1995 BJ4)
A paper posted on October 26th, 2026 and accepted by the Astrophysical Journal Letters reports that the outer main-belt asteroid 6993 (1995 BJ4), about 12 kilometres across, was seen shedding material from June 25th, 2026 in Zwicky Transient Facility images, which would make it the largest known main-belt comet if the activity comes from ice turning to gas rather than from an impact. Touches no step of the tree.
The latest scan
November 1st, 2026, reading every open node in the world’s branches, the first scan of the month63 events read, nothing moved.
Checks marked Nothing new start closed; open one to see the full note, its searches and its sources.
Category: time window
W, Window · 7 events readThe large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longerNo TRIAD or equivalent lifespan results found; a December 2025 Dog Aging Project paper and early 2026 coverage describe the trial as still in progress.
2 searches:
- TRIAD trial rapamycin dogs results Dog Aging Project
- rapamycin companion dogs lifespan placebo-controlled trial published 2026
A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved forNo FDA or EMA guidance, pathway decision or approval naming aging as an indication was found.
Only conference remarks from FDA officials at ARDD 2026 and commentary (a Science policy piece dated October 1st, 2026) turned up, which are not the criterion.
2 searches:
- FDA aging indication guidance healthy lifespan drug approval pathway
- EMA regulator slowing aging as indication October 2026
A randomized human trial shows one drug delays several age-related diseases at onceNo composite-endpoint aging trial has reported; TAME is still enrolling or funding-constrained with results not expected before 2027-2028.
2 searches:
- TAME metformin trial results aging composite endpoint 2026
- randomized trial older adults 65 delays multiple age-related diseases primary composite published
The first drug is approved whose purpose is to slow aging, not to treat one diseaseNo FDA or EMA approval with an aging indication was found.
Loyal's LOY-002 dog drug has had veterinary safety-section acceptance only, which is not a human approval, and the THRIVE Act 2026 is pending legislation.
2 searches:
- first drug approved to slow aging FDA EMA label 2026
- longevity drug approval healthy lifespan indication regulator news October 2026
A treatment is shown in a large trial to cut the death rate of older adults by at least a quarterNo qualifying placebo-controlled trial reporting a 25 percent all-cause mortality fall in general older adults was found; longevity trials such as VITAL-H and SHARP are still under way.
2 searches:
- randomized trial older adults all-cause mortality reduced 25 percent placebo five years
- longevity therapy trial reduces death rate older adults 2026 results
Someone verifiably lives past 122, the longest human life on recordJeanne Calment's record of 122 years 164 days stands; the oldest living person is Ethel Caterham of the UK, born August 21st, 1909 (about 117), far short of the threshold.
2 searches:
- Gerontology Research Group oldest person living 2026
- oldest person in the world supercentenarian verified age record Jeanne Calment broken
A drug regulator accepts a biological measure of aging as a trial's primary endpointNo qualified aging-clock biomarker or regulator-agreed pivotal design was found; commentary says no clock has FDA surrogate status.
Registered clock-endpoint trials such as NCT07888595 show no sign of regulator agreement.
2 searches:
- FDA biomarker qualification epigenetic clock aging endpoint
- aging clock primary endpoint pivotal trial regulator agreed design 2026
Category: cheap launch
L, Launch · 11 events readA fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar yearStarship has flown 14 times as of mid-October 2026 with Flight 14 on September 28th, 2026 the first orbital flight, and no fully reusable vehicle is near 100 orbital launches in a year.
Nothing in the leaf window since October 25th, 2026 bears on the criterion.
2 searches:
- Starship launches 2026 flight record orbital launches this year
- fully reusable rocket 100 launches in a year November 2026
A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flightOn October 20th, 2026 SpaceX said Flight 15 (targeted November 2026, licence not yet issued) will attempt to catch both stages, which is a plan and not the event.
No ship has been caught and no post-flight statement exists as of November 1st, 2026.
2 searches:
- SpaceX post-flight statement Starship both stages caught reflight
- Starship V3 ship catch booster and ship recovered October 2026
A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbitNo ship-to-ship transfer has been reported; the demonstration is still unscheduled as of September 2026 per a secondary source.
Nothing found since October 25th, 2026.
2 searches:
- Starship ship-to-ship propellant transfer demonstration NASA milestone
- orbital refueling in orbit propellant transfer tonnes completed October 2026
A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly againReporting says Artemis III (mid-2027) is now a low Earth orbit lander test and the first crewed landing is Artemis IV, targeted 2028 at the earliest, with both landers not ready before late 2027.
No landing and no new event in the leaf window.
2 searches:
- Artemis III lunar lander crew landing schedule Starship HLS Blue Moon news
- NASA mission record astronauts Moon landing lander reusable 2026 update
Mass to low Earth orbit is sold for less than two hundred dollars a kilogramThe only public Starship price point is a $90 million flight disclosed in a Voyager 10-K in March 2026 (about $600 to $900 per kg), outside the window and above the threshold.
Falcon 9 is about $2,700 to $3,300 per kg, and no price list at or below $200 per kg was found.
2 searches:
- launch price per kg low Earth orbit price list Starship Falcon 9 New Glenn 2026
- SpaceX Starship commercial contract price per kilogram announced cheapest launch
A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched partsOnly research concepts and papers surfaced, with no flown 100 metre structure or operator assembly record since September 27th, 2026.
2 searches:
- in-orbit assembly large structure 100 metres space station telescope solar array assembled in orbit 2026
- operator assembly records structural joins robotic assembly orbit large space station module truss Axiom Vast Voyager 2026
A hundred tonnes of material dug or made on the Moon are delivered to orbit in one yearOnly ground prototypes (NASA carbothermal, Blue Origin reactor) and plans such as ESA's October 21st, 2026 Lunavest market study surfaced.
No lunar material has been delivered to orbit.
3 searches:
- lunar regolith oxygen extraction delivered to lunar orbit customer tonnes operator accounting
- Moon mining ISRU commercial regolith water ice excavation mission October 2026
- lunar material delivered to orbit regolith or oxygen tonnes 2026 news
A hundred tonnes a year of material from the Moon or an asteroid are delivered to orbitNeither route node has resolved and no search found any off-Earth material delivered to orbit, so the node is unchanged.
Probability is carried by the two route nodes.
2 searches:
- first delivery of lunar or asteroid resources to orbit 100 tonnes space resources milestone
- space mining news October 2026 Moon asteroid resource delivery orbit commercial
A hundred tonnes of material from an asteroid are delivered to orbit around Earth or the Moon in one yearAstroForge's Odin failed earlier and Karman+ has not flown hardware (demo aims at about 1 kg).
No 2026 funding round or delivery found since September 27th, 2026.
2 searches:
- asteroid mining company 2026 sample return mission funding Karman+ AstroForge Odin
- asteroid material delivered Earth orbit customer received tonnes mined asteroid water metal
Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burnedNo in-orbit multi-month boil-off result found.
A October 20th, 2026 article restates that NASA's plan needs a long-duration boil-off demonstration before a 2028 landing, which is a plan.
2 searches:
- cryogenic propellant long-duration storage in orbit demonstration boil-off months 2026 Starship depot
- zero boil-off orbital depot launched liquid oxygen methane stored six months engine burn
A tonne of propellant made from off-Earth material is fired in a rocket engineOnly ground prototypes (NASA solar carbothermal May 19th, 2026, Blue Origin April 2026) and small ESA payload plans (50 to 100 grams) found.
No off-Earth propellant production or firing since September 27th, 2026.
2 searches:
- propellant produced from lunar regolith fired in rocket engine Moon oxygen plant demonstration 2026
- in-situ propellant production Moon or Mars tonne oxygen produced off-Earth thruster firing company agency record
Category: power off Earth
E, Energy · 10 events readA single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbitNo megawatt-class spacecraft flew in the past week; the largest flown orbital compute hardware found is Google Suncatcher at about 1 kW (launched October 1st, 2026), and 1 MW designs (Cowboy Space, December 2028 target) are plans.
2 searches:
- megawatt-class spacecraft power in orbit solar array launch news week of October 27 2026
- orbital data center satellite 1 MW solar power operator record
A nuclear reactor runs on the lunar surface for a yearNo new schedule or award news dated in the window; results were older NASA and DOE design-phase coverage and 2025 to early 2026 China and Russia lunar plant plans (mid-2030s).
2 searches:
- NASA Fission Surface Power lunar reactor 40 kilowatt schedule update October 2026
- Moon nuclear reactor China Russia lunar power station 2026 news
A site on the Moon has a hundred kilowatts of electricity through the lunar night, for a year, from any sourceOnly studies and older award coverage turned up; no operator record or new commitment of 100 kW at a lunar site appeared in the window.
2 searches:
- lunar surface 100 kilowatts power lunar night site operator hundred kilowatt
- lunar base power plan Artemis surface power contract award October 2026
Solar panels with storage keep a lunar polar site powered through a whole yearA October 5th, 2026 analysis covers Blue Origin's Power Tower (over 10 kW, terrestrial deployment test only), with Astrotech's lunar utility plan from August 2026; none has operated on the Moon.
For the verify claim, search results show NASA's 2022 VSAT awards of $19.4 million to Astrobotic, Honeybee Robotics and Lockheed Martin plus Astrobotic's 2024 VSAT-XL SBIR Phase II, consistent with the node's wording, but I did not open the primary NASA page so no correction or link is settled.
2 searches, 3 sources:
- lunar south pole solar power storage vertical solar array technology VSAT NASA award
- lunar polar solar power system with battery storage mission 2026 news
- https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2026/10/05/what-is-the-blue-origin-power-tower-and-can-it-power-a-moon-base/
- https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/three-companies-to-help-nasa-advance-solar-array-technology-for-moon
- https://www.astrobotic.com/astrobotic-awarded-lunar-power-study-with-vsat-xl/
Power sent down from orbit keeps a site on the Moon running for a yearOnly design studies (Turyshev, February 2026, about 28 W averaged to a 1 square metre receiver) and Earth-orbit beaming plans (Star Catcher Series A May 2026) turned up; no orbit-to-Moon power delivery or demo was reported.
2 searches:
- power beaming Moon surface laser microwave lunar orbit to surface demonstration 2026
- Star Catcher Aetherflux space power beaming news October 2026
High-temperature superconducting wire costs a tenth of what it does todayNo dated 2026 vendor price list or procurement record was found for either verify claim (vendors quote on request).
Secondary sources give $150 to 200 per kA-m at 77 K self-field around 2021 and an analysis figure near $100, so the $150 reference and the 12 mm tape specification remain unconfirmed but not contradicted.
3 searches:
- REBCO high-temperature superconductor tape price per kA-m 77 K 2026
- HTS tape cost reduction dollars per kiloamp-metre Faraday Factory SuperOx Fujikura price October 2026
- REBCO coated conductor 12 mm wide metal substrate production order price list kilometres
A fusion power plant delivers net electricity to a gridNo fusion plant exports electricity to a grid; Helion Orion (2028 target) and CFS ARC (early 2030s, PJM interconnection filing) are plans, and SPARC has not yet shown net energy.
2 searches:
- fusion power plant first electricity to grid news October 2026
- Commonwealth Fusion SPARC Helion Polaris net electricity grid operator metering
A power source makes a hundred megawatts of electricity while weighing no more than a hundred tonnesNo hundred-megawatt test at or below one kg per kW appeared; current programs are kilowatt scale (lunar reactor, SR-1 at about 20 kW) and Avalanche's fusion orbital prototype target is 2027.
2 searches:
- 100 megawatt space power system compact lightweight reactor test kilogram per kilowatt 2026
- high specific power fusion fission space power developer test record October 2026
A fission-electric power system built for spaceflight makes a hundred megawatts of electricityNo hundred-megawatt flight-type reactor program exists; the 2026 White House space nuclear memo targets at least 100 kWe for the 2030s, and Antares reached zero-power criticality on June 4th, 2026, outside the window.
2 searches:
- space nuclear reactor megawatt electric spacecraft power system ground test agency report 2026
- hundred megawatt space reactor design NASA DOE Pentagon October 2026
A radiator system sheds a megawatt of waste heat in vacuum for thirty daysNo megawatt radiator flew in the past week; NASA's MARVL work targets about 4 MW on the ground-analysis side and Texas A&M's small radiator flies spring 2027.
2 searches:
- space radiator megawatt heat rejection flight test in orbit 2026
- large deployable radiator spacecraft thermal rejection demonstration launch late October 2026
Category: fast ships
D, Drive · 7 events readA nuclear-powered engine produces a kilometre per second of velocity change in spaceOn October 8th, 2026 NASA and the Department of Energy signed an agreement on nuclear electric propulsion, and on October 20th, 2026 trade press reported progress on the SR-1 Freedom power module, with launch still targeted for December 2028.
These are plans and hardware progress, not accumulated velocity change in space, and the DRACO thermal demo has no reported flight.
2 searches, 2 sources:
- nuclear thermal propulsion spacecraft flight mission news October 2026
- nuclear reactor powered spacecraft delta-v orbital tracking launch 2026
- https://wwwhatsnew.com/2026/10/14/nasa-energia-propulsion-nuclear-espacial/
- https://asdnews.com/news/aerospace/2026/10/20/nasas-sr1-freedom-advances-with-progress-nuclear-power-module
Nuclear propulsion is used on several missions a yearNothing bears on three missions in one year beyond the single planned SR-1 Freedom launch (December 2028 target) and the Roscosmos Nuklon preliminary design from April 2026, both outside the window and both plans.
2 searches:
- nuclear electric propulsion missions per year NASA DARPA Roscosmos 2026 announcement
- reactor-powered propulsion mission operators confirm October 2026
Three missions in one year reach the asteroid belt within twelve months of leaving EarthNo mission reaching the belt or beyond within twelve months of leaving Earth orbit turned up; results were old Psyche and UAE belt-mission coverage (long cruises) and concept studies.
2 searches:
- mission to asteroid belt arrives within one year of launch spacecraft 2026
- fast transit Mars Jupiter propulsion months mission operators October 2026
Megawatt solar-electric propulsion is used on several missions a yearNo megawatt-class solar-electric mission flew or was announced in the window; only procurement notices from September 2026.
For the verify claim, two searches found no published mission study of a megawatt solar-electric craft reaching the belt in about a year (found studies were lower power with 2.5 to 3.7 year transfers), so the claim is neither confirmed nor refuted and stays open.
4 searches:
- megawatt solar electric propulsion spacecraft mission news October 2026
- solar electric propulsion tug cargo missions per year thruster power megawatt operators 2026
- megawatt solar electric propulsion payload to main asteroid belt one year mission study
- 1 MW solar electric propulsion main belt trip time study high power SEP asteroid rendezvous years
A crew travels beyond the Earth-Moon system and returns to EarthOnly Artemis II (launched April 1st, 2026, lunar flyby, peak about 406,771 km) turned up, which is below the five million km bar and outside the window; no crewed mission beyond the Earth-Moon system was reported.
2 searches:
- crewed mission beyond Moon deep space return Earth Mars crew 2026 news October
- agency mission record crew five million kilometres from Earth Mars flyby crewed plan
An engine with both high thrust and high exhaust speed fires in spacePulsar Fusion reported first plasma in its Sunbird exhaust test system in March 2026 (no fusion, no measured thrust), and nothing in the window shows a kilonewton thruster above 100 km/s.
2 searches:
- fusion rocket engine thrust exhaust velocity space test 2026
- high-power high-specific-impulse thruster kilonewton 100 km/s demonstration October 2026
A site beyond the Earth-Moon system is crewed without a break for a yearNo crewed site beyond the Earth-Moon system exists; the only year-long occupation found was NASA's CHAPEA ground simulation in Houston, ending October 31st, 2026, which does not meet the criterion.
2 searches:
- continuously crewed outpost beyond Earth-Moon system Mars base permanent crew plan 2026
- operator records Mars crewed habitat continuous occupation year news October 2026
Category: bodies that hold up
B, Biology · 11 events readA mammal is conceived, born, and weaned in partial gravityNo report in the past week of a mammal conceived, born and weaned at sustained partial gravity.
The JAXA MARS centrifuge study (0.33 g, 0.67 g) on the ISS involved adult mice and offspring but no peer-reviewed pup outcomes were found, and the multigenerational partial-gravity habitat is only a concept.
2 searches:
- mammal reproduction partial gravity centrifuge mice born weaned 2026
- Effects of Partial Gravity on Mammals and their Next Generations JAXA results pups
A person lives a full year in partial gravity and comes home without disqualifying harmNothing found since September 27th, 2026 on a person spending twelve months at partial gravity.
Results were only background on lunar health risks and NASA research calls.
2 searches:
- year-long mission Moon lunar gravity astronaut health twelve months NASA October 2026
- lunar surface long-duration stay astronaut one year Moon base crew health standards bone loss study published
A child is born off Earth and raised there through early childhoodNo birth off Earth and no settlement able to host one was found.
SpaceBorn United only plans a mouse-embryo orbital mission in 2026, and no outcome was reported.
2 searches:
- first baby born in space human birth off Earth settlement 2026
- SpaceBorn United OR "SpaceLife Origin" pregnancy space embryo experiment 2026
A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravityNo crewed rotating spacecraft or 30-day spin test found in the past week.
Vast's roadmap lists a sub-scale demo spin test and an artificial gravity station for the 2030s, which are plans and not the event.
2 searches:
- artificial gravity spinning space station crewed rotating demonstration Vast Gravitics 2026
- Starlab OR "Voyager Station" OR Vast rotating station crewed artificial gravity test announced September 2026
People live for a year in a spinning habitat with Earth-normal gravityNo news of a built or occupied Earth-gravity spinning habitat.
Gateway Foundation and Orbital Assembly results were old plans with slipped dates, and no 2026 funding announcement was found.
2 searches:
- rotating space habitat Earth gravity Gateway Foundation Von Braun station news October 2026
- spinning space habitat 1g construction funding announced orbital 2026
Humans can live off Earth long term, by partial gravity or by a spinning habitatDerived node, no route node resolved and nothing in the past five weeks bears on either route.
Only plans and forecasts for lunar bases and rotating stations were found.
2 searches:
- humans live long term off Earth first permanent settlement partial gravity or rotating habitat milestone October 2026
- Starlab OR "Voyager Station" OR Vast rotating station crewed artificial gravity test announced September 2026
A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by halfNo peer-reviewed flight measurement of a shielding system halving the dose was found.
Artemis I data showed the storm shelter location read about half the cabin in the Van Allen belts, and Artemis II peer-reviewed dosimetry is not yet out, so neither meets the criterion (no GCR comparison to a reference hull).
2 searches:
- radiation shielding flight measurement deep space dose reduction Artemis II results published
- Orion Artemis II radiation dose shield storm shelter water wall measured reduction percent paper
A crew off Earth lives for a year with most of its food produced on site and its water and air recycledNo off-Earth crew year with more than half of calories produced on site.
The ISS still relies on Earth food and the ground analogs and MELiSSA results found do not count as off-Earth.
2 searches:
- closed-loop life support crew year food grown on site water oxygen recycling 2026 analog mission
- CHAPEA OR "Lunar Palace" OR "Mars-500" food produced on site percent calories crew months 2026
A treatment is approved that makes people substantially more resistant to chronic space radiationNo regulator approval or agency adoption of a radiation-resistance treatment.
Only preclinical work (antagomirs, gene silencing, CDDO) and funding calls appeared.
2 searches:
- radiation protection drug astronauts cancer risk approval FDA countermeasure 2026
- gene therapy OR drug reduce cosmic radiation cancer risk astronauts trial regulator October 2026
A staple crop is grown from seed to harvest off EarthNo kilogram-scale harvest reported in the past week.
The Shenzhou-23 crew harvested experimental rice samples and began a second generation around August 3rd, 2026, which is an experiment-scale life-cycle result and outside the one-week window.
2 searches:
- wheat OR rice OR potato harvest kilogram grown in space station greenhouse Tiangong OR ISS 2026
- Tiangong crew harvest wheat rice astronauts Shenzhou plant experiment October 2026
A major operation under anaesthesia is performed off Earth and the patient survivesNo surgery under anaesthesia off Earth found.
The January 2026 ISS medical evacuation shows a patient being returned to Earth, and the station has no operating capability.
2 searches:
- surgery in space astronaut operation under anesthesia off Earth first surgical procedure orbit 2026
- emergency surgery astronaut medical evacuation ISS OR Tiangong surgical capability commercial station 2026 first operation
Category: a reason to go
M, Motive · 5 events readA commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigationNo filing or audited statement reporting ten million dollars of earned in-orbit computing or manufacturing revenue turned up in the window, only trade coverage of Kepler and Starcloud compute offerings with no disclosed revenue.
Nothing bears on the criterion yet.
2 searches:
- orbital data center revenue 10-Q commercial customer in-orbit computing revenue 2026
- in-space manufacturing company annual revenue private customer earned October 2026
A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the groundNo orbit-to-ground kilowatt result was found, only planned demonstrations (Aetherflux, Virtus Solis, Overview Energy for 2027 or 2028) and the earlier Caltech milliwatt result.
Plans are not the event.
2 searches:
- space-based solar power beaming demonstration kilowatt to ground 2026
- orbital power beaming receiver Earth peer-reviewed results October 2026 Aetherflux OR Caltech OR JAXA
A hundred people are living and working off Earth at the same time, for payTrackers show about 10 people off Earth as of September 18th, 2026, all on the ISS and Tiangong, far below one hundred.
No commercial station crewing news found in the window.
2 searches:
- people in space at once crew count Tiangong ISS commercial station Vast Axiom October 2026
- number of humans in orbit record paid astronauts private space station 2026 news
Something mined or made off Earth is sold at a profitNo company reports sales of an off-Earth-sourced product, let alone a profitable year, in audited accounts.
Results were funding rounds, plans and market forecasts.
2 searches:
- lunar ice OR asteroid material sold profit propellant in orbit company annual report 2026
- space mining company first profitable year audited accounts off-Earth resource sales
A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premiumNo public statement or filing of a million-dollar-premium policy on a private lunar asset was found.
Only general space insurance market commentary (a Q2 2026 market update dated July 10th, 2026) and the 2022 ispace policy with no premium stated.
2 searches:
- lunar lander insurance policy premium Lloyd's underwriter lunar mission 2026
- Intuitive Machines OR ispace OR Firefly 10-Q insurance coverage lunar lander in-orbit insurance premium
Category: governments
R, Regime · 7 events readA crewed lunar program, government or commercial, keeps flying across two changes of its principal backerNothing new in the window: Artemis has been restructured earlier in 2026 (Artemis III a low Earth orbit test, first landing on Artemis IV) with no cancellation found.
No change of head of government or backer bears on the criterion.
2 searches:
- Artemis program funding Congress NASA budget October 2026 crewed lunar landing Chang'e Mengzhou
- Artemis III crewed lunar program cancelled OR restructured OR delayed new administration 2026
Space spending recovers within three years of the next recessionNo NBER recession dating was found for 2026.
FY2027 NASA appropriations coverage (House committee bill of May 13th, 2026) predates the window and no enacted figure was found.
2 searches:
- NBER recession dating committee announcement 2026
- NASA Exploration Space Operations appropriations fiscal 2027 House Senate CJS bill
The major space powers are bound by a ban on debris-creating anti-satellite testsNo binding treaty or negotiation was found; results were the 2022 UN resolution and unilateral pledges.
No 2026 First Committee ASAT text surfaced in search.
2 searches:
- anti-satellite test ban treaty destructive ASAT United Nations Russia China United States October 2026
- UN General Assembly First Committee 2026 resolution direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests moratorium vote
The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off EarthThe COPUOS working group on space resources published a September 2026 consolidated draft of non-binding principles with intersessional meetings under way, and no US-China mutual recognition exists.
Nothing meets the treaty or mutual-recognition criterion.
2 searches:
- Artemis Accords China International Lunar Research Station space resources law mining rules ownership 2026
- COPUOS legal subcommittee space resource activities working group draft principles 2026
An off-Earth site accepts people as permanent residentsNo published resident status at any off-Earth site was found, only proposals, academic governance work and reports of lunar settlement intentions.
2 searches:
- permanent residency Moon OR Mars OR space station settler resident status policy first residents 2026
- long-duration stay off Earth indefinite residence space habitat governing body residents law Moon village
The United States and China recognise each other's keep-out zones around off-Earth installationsNo US-China talks or instrument on mutual recognition of safety zones were found, only commentary and the non-binding Artemis Accords.
Nothing bears on the criterion.
2 searches:
- safety zones lunar surface China US recognition ILRS Artemis Accords deconfliction agreement talks 2026
- US China space talks bilateral agreement lunar safety zones OR "keep-out zones" treaty October 2026
A space traffic authority among the major powers can enforce rules on manoeuvres and launch windowsNo multilateral authority with enforcement power over the major powers was found, only national and regional efforts (TraCSS, EU Space Act) and technical standards.
2 searches:
- space traffic coordination body binding authority launch windows manoeuvres US China EU agreement 2026
- international space traffic management organization proposal UN Office for Outer Space Affairs Office of Space Commerce TraCSS October 2026
Category: the Contact Clause
C, Contact Clause · 5 events readA non-human mind produces knowledge beyond usVerify claims, no change: AlphaEvolve mathematics paper is still arXiv 2511.02864 with no journal acceptance found; AlphaTensor facts hold (Nature, October 2022, 47 multiplications mod 2); the Erdős unit-distance disproof is still preprints only (arXiv 2605.20695 and an OpenAI note) with no journal record found.
Separately, a secondary report says OpenAI announced on August 1st, 2026 an internal model 'Astra' that made progress on 10 open problems with Lean-formalized proofs, outside the window and not a peer-reviewed record.
5 searches, 4 sources:
- AlphaEvolve mathematics paper published journal peer-reviewed accepted 2026
- AlphaTensor Nature 2022 matrix multiplication 47 multiplications four-by-four modulo 2
- Erdős unit distance conjecture disproof OpenAI journal published peer review
- unit distance conjecture counterexample paper accepted Annals OR "Inventiones" OR "Acta Mathematica" OR "Journal" AI-generated construction Sawin
- AI-discovered mathematical result verified Lean beyond human researchers new proof AI system October 2026
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.02864
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.20695
- https://openai.com/index/model-disproves-discrete-geometry-conjecture/
- https://gigazine.net/gsc_news/en/20260803-openai-astra-lean/
Humans learn from itNo evidence of a machine-originated concept taught in two independent textbooks or used in most new papers.
Only AlphaFold usage and a graduate course were found, which are tool use and not a concept adopted from the machine.
2 searches:
- AI-originated concept adopted textbook field standard method machine-discovered idea taught
- AlphaFold OR AlphaTensor method now in textbooks adopted standard practice field reorganized machine-discovered concept 2026
An intelligence not descended from us is detectedNo confirmed technosignature, complex-life evidence or alien artefact.
K2-18b remains contested and the other results were unreliable or preparatory.
2 searches:
- technosignature OR biosignature detection confirmed independent teams peer-reviewed October 2026 SETI
- extraterrestrial life evidence confirmed K2-18b OR Mars biosignature OR alien signal news October 2026
A message from elsewhere is understoodNo verified non-human signal exists to decode.
The 'decoded' coverage found concerns the 2023 simulated Mars-orbiter signal.
2 searches:
- decoded alien message OR verified non-human signal decoding extraterrestrial 2026 peer-reviewed
- technosignature OR biosignature detection confirmed independent teams peer-reviewed October 2026 SETI
A real exchange with a machine mindNo accepted, independently replicated inside measure for AI systems was found, only proposals, checklists and preprints on introspection.
Parts (a) and (c) show nothing new either.
2 searches:
- AI consciousness test independent replication machine sentience measurement peer-reviewed October 2026
- AI model self-improvement learns from human feedback reciprocal research collaboration scientific discovery origin concept 2026 AI introspection measure
What the five verdicts mean
- It happened
- The test was met and two independent public records agreed.
- A number moved
- The evidence changed the odds, within the limit a scan is allowed to move them.
- Waiting on me
- Something the scan is not allowed to do on its own, written up for me to rule on.
- No change
- Something relevant happened and it did not meet the test, so no number changed.
- Nothing new
- Nothing in the week bore on what this node is waiting for.
Earlier scans
8 of them, newest first2026-10-25 17 events read, one decided since
Category: time window
W, Window · 3 events readThe large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longerNo TRIAD lifespan results have been published.
The Dog Aging Project's methods paper of December 2025 says the study is still in progress, with results expected later this decade.
2 searches:
- Dog Aging Project TRIAD rapamycin trial results lifespan 2026
- Dog Aging Project rapamycin TRIAD interim OR primary results announcement
A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved forNeither the FDA nor the EMA has published guidance or a pathway for aging as an indication.
At the ARDD conference in 2026 an FDA official said aging will be a topic in the updated Focus Areas of Regulatory Science report, due early in fiscal 2027, which is a planning document, not final guidance.
2 searches:
- FDA OR EMA aging indication guidance healthy lifespan drug approval pathway October 2026
- EMA OR FDA healthy ageing drug approval pathway composite age-related diseases TAME metformin regulator position 2026
A drug regulator accepts a biological measure of aging as a trial's primary endpointNo regulator has accepted an epigenetic or proteomic clock as a primary endpoint.
Commentary of August 2026 says only eight biomarkers have been qualified through the FDA programme and no aging clock is among them.
2 searches:
- FDA qualifies biomarker epigenetic clock aging primary endpoint trial agreed regulator 2026
- epigenetic clock biological age endpoint regulator accepts clinical trial design EMA FDA TAME
Category: cheap launch
L, Launch · 5 events readA fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar yearNothing new bearing on the criterion in the week to October 25th, 2026.
Starship has flown about three times in 2026 (Flight 13 on July 24th, 2026, Flight 14 on September 28th, 2026), no ship has been reflown, and SpaceX's stated aim is weekly launches in the first half of 2027, far from 100 qualifying launches in a calendar year.
2 searches:
- Starship launches 2026 total flights count this year
- SpaceX Starship launch cadence 2026 reuse booster reflown ship Flight 14 results
A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flightFlight 15, with the first planned ship catch attempt, has not flown and no launch date or FAA licence for it was found; the ledger's earlier reading that neither stage of Flight 14 was caught is unchanged.
Musk put the odds of a first-try ship catch at 50 to 60 percent; no ship has been recovered.
2 searches:
- Starship Flight 15 ship catch date FAA license
- Starship Flight 14 September 28 2026 booster catch ship result
A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbitSpaceX's earnings update of October 20th, 2026 reportedly put the first orbital propellant-transfer demonstration in the 2027 plan, with no date, so the demonstration has slipped past 2026.
Only trade press (New Space Economy) carries the report, no number moves, and a first demonstration is far below the hundred tonnes the criterion needs.
2 searches, 2 sources:
- Starship ship-to-ship propellant transfer demonstration date NASA HLS 2026
- Starship orbital refueling tanker flight date Musk October 2026
- https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2026/10/21/spacex-targets-weekly-starship-launches-in-2027-and-early-orbital-refueling-tests/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_Propellant_Transfer_Demonstration
A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly againNo crewed landing is scheduled before 2028.
Artemis III is an Earth-orbit lander docking test no earlier than late 2027 and the first landing is on Artemis IV, early 2028; no schedule change surfaced in the week.
2 searches:
- Artemis III Artemis IV lunar landing schedule NASA update October 2026
- Blue Moon lander Starship HLS crewed landing Artemis IV 2028 schedule slip
Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burnedNo ten-tonne, six-month cryogenic storage flight exists.
LOXSAT-1, a 100 litre liquid oxygen test planned for nine months, was listed no earlier than July 17th, 2026 and no launch or result was found.
2 searches:
- LOXSAT-1 Eta Space launch cryogenic orbit
- cryogenic propellant depot in orbit boil-off demonstration news October 2026
Category: power off Earth
E, Energy · 2 events readA single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbitNo spacecraft has generated a megawatt in orbit.
The largest flying system found is the 60 kilowatt roll-out array power system tested for NASA's Gateway; megawatt solar and reactor projects (Overview Energy, Virtus Solis, DRACO, Antares) are demonstrations for 2027 or later.
2 searches:
- megawatt solar array spacecraft orbit power 2026 operator announcement
- space nuclear reactor megawatt radiator flight test 2026 NASA DARPA Space Force
A radiator system sheds a megawatt of waste heat in vacuum for thirty daysNo megawatt radiator has flown or been dated for flight; results are NASA design studies (MARVL, about 3,000 square metres of surface) and ground tests of kilowatt-scale panels.
2 searches:
- radiator heat rejection megawatt space test thermal system flight demonstration 2026
- space nuclear reactor megawatt radiator flight test 2026 NASA DARPA Space Force
Category: bodies that hold up
B, Biology · 3 events readA mammal is conceived, born, and weaned in partial gravityNo peer-reviewed report of a mammal conceived, born and weaned in partial gravity appeared in the week to October 25th, 2026.
Results show only JAXA's earlier centrifuge mouse work (2017, 2019) and a partial-gravity mouse study on the ISS that has no published results paper.
2 searches:
- mammal born partial gravity centrifuge mice pups peer-reviewed study October 2026
- JAXA OR NASA mouse reproduction artificial gravity centrifuge ISS offspring results
A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravityNo crewed spinning spacecraft has produced artificial gravity for thirty days and no new announcement appeared in the week.
Haven-1 is reported as no earlier than the first quarter of 2027 and Vast's rotating station is a 2030s goal.
2 searches:
- artificial gravity crewed rotating spacecraft station module announcement October 2026
- Vast Haven-1 launch date rotation spin gravity operator update
A staple crop is grown from seed to harvest off EarthNo harvest of one kilogram of edible grain or tuber off Earth has been reported.
The newest Tiangong coverage is still the Shenzhou-23 rice sample harvest of about August 4th, 2026, with no yield weight published.
2 searches:
- wheat OR rice harvest Tiangong Shenzhou crew grain yield grams October 2026
- staple crop grown in space seed to harvest ISS potato wheat kilogram edible 2026 agency report
Category: a reason to go
M, Motive · 3 events readA commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigationNo company has filed ten million dollars of non-government revenue for in-orbit work.
Varda (private, Series D of $251 million) and Starcloud (raised $250 million in August 2026) disclose funding, not revenue; meaningful Starcloud compute revenue is not expected before 2027.
2 searches:
- Varda Space Industries revenue 2026 filing customers in-space manufacturing
- Starcloud orbital data center paying customers revenue 2026
A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the groundNo spacecraft has beamed a kilowatt to the ground in a published record.
Aetherflux's kilowatt-class demonstration was planned for 2026 and no launch or result was found; Overview Energy's demonstration is set for 2028.
2 searches:
- space-based solar power beamed to ground kilowatt demonstration Caltech OR Aetherflux OR Overview Energy 2026
- Aetherflux first power beaming satellite launch result
A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premiumNo syndicate has announced cover for a privately owned lunar asset at a million-dollar premium.
A Relm Insurance executive said in April 2026 that insurers need several successful lunar missions first, and the Gallagher update of October 7th, 2026 covers satellites and launch only.
2 searches:
- lunar asset insurance premium syndicate Lloyd's Intuitive Machines OR Astrobotic OR ispace insured 2026
- space insurance lunar lander coverage underwriter announcement October 2026
Category: the Contact Clause
C, Contact Clause · 1 event readA non-human mind produces knowledge beyond usVerify claims: AlphaEvolve's mathematics paper is still the arXiv preprint 2511.02864 (November 3rd, 2025) with no journal acceptance found; the OpenAI Erdős unit-distance disproof (announced May 20th, 2026) has arXiv papers and outside checking but no journal publication found; AlphaTensor's Nature paper of October 5th, 2022 is unchanged and stays unresolved under the strict reading.
New this week: Google DeepMind's AlphaProof Nexus is reported as published in Science on October 8th, 2026 (nine of 353 open Erdős problems and 44 of 492 open OEIS conjectures proved, every proof machine-checked in Lean), a peer-reviewed record the node's list does not yet name. I could not open the Science paper (science.org returned 403) or the arXiv preprint, so I cannot say whether it credits the key ideas to the system or calls the results beyond human work.
For me: No move made. Proposal: add AlphaProof Nexus (Science, October 8th, 2026; arXiv 2605.22763; Lean proofs at github.com/google-deepmind/alphaproof-nexus-results) to C1's verify list as a candidate, to be read against the criterion by the next scan. The criterion needs the peer-reviewed record to say the key idea was the system's and that the result goes beyond what humans had produced; secondary coverage describes Gemini devising the proof strategy and Lean checking it, and says the nine Erdős solutions are not all full solutions of the original problems (Erdős 12 is only partly solved), so it may well not meet the bar. I could not fetch the primary pages (science.org 403; arXiv not fetched), so I am not proposing a correction, only that the paper be read directly.
Taken off my list on November 1st, 2026, by a later scan.
5 searches, 3 sources:
- AlphaEvolve mathematics paper journal published peer-reviewed accepted
- OpenAI Erdős unit distance disproof journal publication peer review
- AlphaTensor Nature matrix multiplication 47 multiplications update 2026
- AI-generated mathematical proof new result peer-reviewed journal acknowledged beyond human mathematicians October 2026
- AlphaProof Nexus Science Erdős problems OEIS conjectures DeepMind
- https://xenospectrum.com/en/alphaproof-nexus-math-proof-science/
- https://the-decoder.com/google-deepminds-alphaproof-nexus-solves-decades-old-math-problems-for-a-few-hundred-dollars/
- https://aiweekly.co/alerts/deepmind-alphaproof-nexus-solves-9-erds-problems
2026-10-18 17 events read, nothing moved
Category: time window
W, Window · 3 events readThe large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longerTRIAD has published no lifespan result; the newest item is the December 2025 design paper, and results are expected later this decade.
2 searches:
- TRIAD Dog Aging Project rapamycin lifespan results 2026
- rapamycin dogs trial lifespan published journal Dog Aging Project news October 2026
A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved forNo guidance, pathway decision or approval names aging as an indication.
FDA's plan to feature aging in its Focus Areas of Regulatory Science update (tentatively fiscal 2027) is a plan, and TAME's 2015 composite-endpoint agreement is the excluded case.
2 searches:
- FDA aging indication guidance healthy lifespan drug approval pathway 2026
- TAME trial FDA agreement aging biomarkers endpoint news
A drug regulator accepts a biological measure of aging as a trial's primary endpointNo regulator has accepted an aging clock as a primary endpoint; commentary dated August 2026 says no epigenetic clock is among the eight biomarkers FDA has qualified, and trials using clocks are exploratory.
2 searches:
- EMA OR FDA epigenetic clock biomarker qualification primary endpoint aging trial 2026
- FDA biomarker qualification program aging clock proteomic surrogate endpoint pivotal trial agreed design October 2026
Category: cheap launch
L, Launch · 5 events readA fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar yearNothing new in the week to October 18th, 2026.
Starship flies a few times a year, Flight 15 is not expected before mid-November, and no ship has been reflown, so 100 qualifying launches in a year is far off.
2 searches:
- Starship launches 2026 flight count orbital ship catch booster ship recovery October
- SpaceX Starship launches this year total flights reuse booster reflown 2026 launch cadence
A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flightFlight 15, with the first ship catch attempt, has not flown.
On October 10th, 2026 Musk said it is four to six weeks away, probably a little before Thanksgiving, so the earlier no-earlier-than October 19th, 2026 planning date has slipped to November; no ship has been recovered.
2 searches:
- Starship ship catch tower Starship flight 13 OR flight 12 results
- Starship Flight 15 ship catch launch date
A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbitNo ship-to-ship transfer has flown and no firm date was announced; the demonstration is listed for late 2026 at the earliest, and a hundred tonnes is far beyond a first demonstration.
2 searches:
- Starship propellant transfer ship-to-ship orbit demonstration 2026 NASA HLS
- Starship tanker propellant transfer test date announced SpaceX October 2026
A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly againNo crewed landing is scheduled before 2028.
Artemis III is a 2027 low Earth orbit test with two landers and the first landing is planned for Artemis IV in 2028; no new schedule change surfaced in the week.
2 searches:
- Artemis III lunar lander crewed landing schedule 2026 Blue Origin Blue Moon Starship HLS update
- NASA Artemis IV landing 2028 lander news this week Blue Moon Mark 1 Starship HLS milestone
Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burnedNo ten-tonne, six-month cryogenic storage flight exists.
LOXSAT-1, a 100 litre liquid oxygen test planned for nine months, was listed no earlier than July 17th, 2026 and no launch or result was found in the search results.
2 searches:
- cryogenic propellant long-duration storage in orbit boil-off demonstration 2026 depot
- LOXSAT-1 Eta Space launch cryogenic orbit result
Category: power off Earth
E, Energy · 2 events readA single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbitNo spacecraft has generated a megawatt in orbit.
The largest flying system found is a 60 kilowatt roll-out array power system tested for NASA's Gateway, and megawatt solar and reactor concepts are all targets for 2027 or later.
2 searches:
- megawatt solar array spacecraft in orbit power generation 2026 operator
- space nuclear reactor power megawatt orbit demonstration radiator test 2026 NASA DRACO Fission Surface
A radiator system sheds a megawatt of waste heat in vacuum for thirty daysNo megawatt radiator has flown or been dated for flight; results are ground chamber tests of kilowatt-scale panels and the cancelled DRACO nuclear rocket demonstration.
2 searches:
- megawatt-class radiator heat rejection vacuum flight test thirty days
- space nuclear reactor power megawatt orbit demonstration radiator test 2026 NASA DRACO Fission Surface
Category: bodies that hold up
B, Biology · 3 events readA mammal is conceived, born, and weaned in partial gravityNo peer-reviewed report of a mammal conceived, born and weaned in partial gravity appeared in the week to October 18th, 2026.
Results show only JAXA's centrifuge platform and its earlier mouse missions, plus the Shenzhou-21 mouse that gave birth to nine pups on December 10th, 2025 after a microgravity flight, which is not partial gravity and has no journal paper.
2 searches:
- mammal partial gravity centrifuge ISS mice reproduction study 2026
- mouse pups born weaned reduced gravity peer-reviewed space agency October 2026
A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravityNo crewed spinning spacecraft has produced artificial gravity for thirty days, and no new announcement appeared in the week.
Vast's rotating station remains a goal for the 2030s and reports conflict on whether Haven-1 will spin at all.
2 searches:
- artificial gravity crewed spinning spacecraft rotating station 2026 news
- Vast Haven rotating module artificial gravity crew 30 days operator announcement October 2026
A staple crop is grown from seed to harvest off EarthNo harvest of one kilogram of edible grain or tuber off Earth has been reported.
The newest Tiangong coverage is the Shenzhou-23 rice sample harvest of about August 4th, 2026 and a wheat second generation nearing maturity, with no yield weight published in the results.
2 searches:
- crop harvest in space wheat potato rice kilogram ISS Tiangong Veggie harvest 2026
- Tiangong Shenzhou crew grain harvest rice wheat grown seed to harvest in orbit October 2026
Category: a reason to go
M, Motive · 3 events readA commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigationNo company has filed ten million dollars of non-government revenue for in-orbit work.
Varda and Starcloud have disclosed funding and no audited revenue; Starcloud's paying compute customers are expected in 2027.
2 searches:
- Varda Space Industries revenue OR in-space manufacturing revenue filing orbit commercial customer 2026
- Starcloud orbital data center revenue customer paying compute in orbit 2026
A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the groundNo orbit-to-ground kilowatt demonstration has been reported.
Aetherflux's demonstration and Japan's OHISAMA satellite were both planned for 2026 and neither showed a launch or measured result in the search results.
2 searches:
- Aetherflux space solar power beaming demonstration launch kilowatt ground receiver
- space-based solar power satellite power beaming to Earth test result Caltech OR JAXA OR Aetherflux OR Virtus Solis October 2026
A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premiumNo lunar asset policy with a premium of one million dollars or more has been publicly confirmed; space insurance coverage in the week was general market commentary with no lunar-specific premium or named policy.
2 searches:
- lunar lander insurance policy premium Lloyd's OR syndicate Intuitive Machines OR ispace OR Astrobotic insured
- space insurance market lunar mission cover underwriters 2026
Category: the Contact Clause
C, Contact Clause · 1 event readA non-human mind produces knowledge beyond usVerify claims: AlphaEvolve's mathematics paper is still the arXiv preprint 2511.02864 (submitted November 3rd, 2025) with no journal acceptance found, so no peer-reviewed record yet says the construction was the system's.
The OpenAI Erdős unit-distance disproof (announced May 20th, 2026) has arXiv papers and outside checking but no journal publication found. AlphaTensor's Nature paper of October 5th, 2022 is unchanged (47 multiplications for four-by-four matrices modulo 2) and stays unresolved under the strict reading. Also seen: Axiom Math says five journals have accepted proofs its prover made (Axios, May 26th, 2026, company claim, page could not be fetched) and OpenAI's Astra results (August 2nd, 2026) are unrefereed; neither shows a peer-reviewed record crediting the key idea to the system as beyond human work.
6 searches:
- AlphaEvolve mathematics paper accepted journal peer-reviewed 2026
- OpenAI Erdős unit distance conjecture disproof published journal peer review
- AlphaTensor Nature matrix multiplication AI beyond human mathematicians peer-reviewed new result
- AI system discovers new mathematical proof construction verified Lean published journal October 2026
- Axiom AxiomProver journal accepted proof open problem Chen-Ono OR Fel's conjecture peer-reviewed AI generated proof idea
- OpenAI Astra mathematics results journal publication peer review October 2026
2026-10-11 17 events read, one decided since
Category: time window
W, Window · 3 events readThe large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longerTRIAD has published no lifespan result; it is still enrolling toward 580 dogs and results are expected later this decade.
2 searches:
- TRIAD rapamycin dog aging project results lifespan 2026
- Dog Aging Project TRIAD rapamycin news October 2026
A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved forNo guidance, pathway decision or approval naming aging as an indication.
FDA said at ARDD 2026 that aging will feature in a planned Focus Areas of Regulatory Science update, tentatively fiscal 2027, which is a plan and not the event.
2 searches:
- FDA aging indication guidance healthy longevity drug approval pathway October 2026
- FDA OR EMA aging as indication longevity guidance regulator announcement
A drug regulator accepts a biological measure of aging as a trial's primary endpointNo regulator has accepted an aging clock as a primary endpoint; no epigenetic clock is qualified in FDA's biomarker program, and the May 27th, 2026 Reagan-Udall meeting was discussion only.
2 searches:
- FDA epigenetic clock biomarker qualification aging primary endpoint trial
- biological age clock accepted endpoint regulator EMA FDA geroscience pivotal trial agreed 2026
Category: cheap launch
L, Launch · 5 events readA fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar yearStarship has made one orbital flight (Flight 14, September 28th, 2026, already in the ledger) and no stage has been reflown.
Pace is a few flights a year; nothing new bears on 100 in a year.
2 searches:
- Starship orbital launches 2026 count flights per year cadence SpaceX manifest
- SpaceX Starship flight launch log orbital flights 2026 total reuse
A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flightNo new flight in the week to October 11th, 2026.
Flight 15, provisionally no earlier than October 19th, 2026 with the first ship catch attempt, has not flown; Musk puts a ship reflight at the end of 2026 or early 2027.
2 searches:
- Starship ship booster both caught reflown October 2026
- Starship Flight 15 ship catch tower reuse announcement
A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbitNo ship-to-ship transfer has flown; the demonstration is listed no earlier than late 2026 with no firm date, and a hundred tonnes is far beyond it.
2 searches:
- Starship propellant transfer demonstration orbit NASA milestone October 2026
- orbital refueling ship-to-ship transfer Starship tanker depot flight test date
A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly againNo crewed landing is scheduled in 2026.
Artemis III is a 2027 low Earth orbit docking test with a crew named in June 2026, and the first landing is on Artemis IV, planned for 2028.
2 searches:
- Artemis III lander crew Moon landing schedule October 2026
- Starship HLS Blue Moon lander Artemis IV 2028 crewed landing update
Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burnedNo ten-tonne, six-month cryogenic storage flight has occurred or been dated.
Reported work is ground testing of zero-boil-off cryocoolers and the planned LOXSAT-1 demonstration.
2 searches:
- cryogenic propellant long-duration storage orbit Starship depot OR Blue Origin OR ULA boil-off test 2026
- Starship long-duration propellant storage orbit boil-off months flight
Category: power off Earth
E, Energy · 2 events readA single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbitNo spacecraft has generated a megawatt in orbit.
NASA's Space Reactor-1 Freedom (announced March 25th, 2026) is a roughly 20 kilowatt reactor aimed at a December 2028 launch, and commercial on-orbit reactors are 10 to 250 kilowatts.
2 searches:
- megawatt-class spacecraft power orbit nuclear reactor OR solar array one megawatt flight 2026
- NASA Fission Surface Power OR space reactor launch 2028 Duffy megawatt orbit demonstration update October 2026
A radiator system sheds a megawatt of waste heat in vacuum for thirty daysNo megawatt radiator flight test exists or is scheduled.
Results are ground tests of single panels and NASA's MARVL design study (July 2026).
2 searches:
- space radiator megawatt heat rejection flight test thirty days vacuum
- nuclear space power radiator heat rejection megawatt flight demonstration operator test record 2026
Category: bodies that hold up
B, Biology · 3 events readA mammal is conceived, born, and weaned in partial gravityNo peer-reviewed report of a mammal conceived, born and weaned in partial gravity appeared in the week to October 11th, 2026.
Results describe only earlier JAXA MARS centrifuge work on adult mice and a pregnancy experiment with no published outcome.
2 searches:
- mammal pregnancy partial gravity centrifuge mice born study 2026
- JAXA OR NASA rodent reproduction artificial gravity lunar gravity experiment mission record
A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravityNo crewed spinning spacecraft has produced artificial gravity for thirty days.
Vast says Haven-1 stays in microgravity and its rotating station is a 2035 goal; no other operator has a crewed demonstration scheduled.
2 searches:
- Vast Haven rotating station artificial gravity crew thirty days spin 2026
- crewed spinning spacecraft artificial gravity demonstration announced mission operator
A staple crop is grown from seed to harvest off EarthNo harvest of one kilogram of edible grain or tuber off Earth has been reported.
The Shenzhou-23 crew collected first-generation rice seeds on Tiangong on about August 2nd, 2026 and a second generation is growing, with no yield weight published. On the verify claim: the 2022 Tiangong rice did complete seed to seed (six seeds sown, 59 harvested), but the CAS record says the ears matured after over 100 days, not about 120.
For me: Verify claim settled in part, so it comes to you because the scan may not edit the list: rice did complete a seed-to-seed cycle on Tiangong in 2022 (CAS, November 7th, 2024 report), but the record's 'about 120 days' is not supported; CAS says over 100 days. Suggest correcting the wording to 'over 100 days' and clearing the claim. No probability move: the 2026 rice work is still seeds, not a one-kilogram harvest.
Taken off my list on October 12th, 2026, by a decision recorded on the step.
3 searches, 2 sources:
- wheat OR rice OR potato harvest grown in space kilogram yield Tiangong OR ISS OR Moon 2026
- Chinese Academy of Sciences rice Tiangong full life cycle seed to seed 2022 120 days Wentian
- Shenzhou-23 rice harvest yield grams second generation Tiangong CAS announcement
- https://english.cas.cn/newsroom/cas_media/202411/t20241107_693870.shtml
- https://cislunarspace.cn/en/space-news/2026/08/2026-08-03-tiangong-rice-two-generations/
Category: a reason to go
M, Motive · 3 events readA commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigationNo company has filed ten million dollars of non-government revenue for in-orbit work.
Varda raised a $251 million Series D in early October 2026, which is funding, not revenue, and it is private with no disclosed revenue.
2 searches:
- orbital data center OR in-space manufacturing revenue customer 10 million filing Varda OR Starcloud OR Space Forge 2026
- Varda Space Industries revenue annual 2026 commercial customers reentry
A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the groundNo orbit-to-ground kilowatt demonstration has been reported.
Aetherflux's kilowatt-class demo is still planned for a 2026 rideshare with no launch confirmed, and Virtus Solis is 2027.
2 searches:
- space-based solar power beaming to ground kilowatt demonstration Caltech OR Aetherflux OR Star Catcher OR Virtus 2026
- Aetherflux orbit power beaming receiver demonstration launch date results
A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premiumNo lunar asset policy with a premium of a million dollars or more has been publicly confirmed; the only precedent is ispace's 2022 Mitsui Sumitomo program, and a 2026 trade piece says insurers want more successful missions first.
2 searches:
- lunar asset insurance underwriter Lloyd's moon lander policy premium 2026
- Intuitive Machines OR Firefly OR Astrobotic insurance lunar lander coverage syndicate public filing
Category: the Contact Clause
C, Contact Clause · 1 event readA non-human mind produces knowledge beyond usOn October 6th, 2026 OpenAI posted 372 families of mathematical results from an internal model, about 42 percent of the top-line proofs machine-checked in Lean; none is peer reviewed yet, so the criterion (peer-reviewed record) is not met.
Verify claims: no peer-reviewed paper was found saying AlphaEvolve's key construction came from the system rather than its operators (its newest paper, on the matrix multiplication exponent, is an arXiv preprint submitted August 17th, 2026); AlphaTensor's 47-multiplication result over arithmetic modulo 2 is confirmed, and under my strict reading of October 6th, 2026 it does not resolve the step.
4 searches, 3 sources:
- AlphaEvolve peer-reviewed paper construction discovered by system kissing number matrix multiplication published journal
- AI-discovered mathematical proof OR construction beyond human researchers peer-reviewed October 2026
- AlphaTensor Nature 2022 47 multiplications 4x4 modulo 2 authors describe beyond best human-designed
- AI system new scientific discovery verified experiment acknowledged journal DeepMind OR OpenAI September 2026
- https://www.implicator.ai/openai-372-math-results-mathematicians-race-to-read.md
- https://www.alphaxiv.org/abs/2608.16884
- https://www.deeplearning.ai/the-batch/alphatensor-for-faster-matrix-multiplication-explained/
2026-10-08 17 events read, 2 decided since
Category: time window
W, Window · 3 events readThe large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longerNo TRIAD lifespan analysis has been published; the trial is still enrolling toward 580 dogs under an NIH grant running to November 2029.
Loyal's separate dog drug LOY-002 is not rapamycin and has two of three technical sections accepted by the FDA, with no approval.
2 searches:
- TRIAD rapamycin Dog Aging Project results announcement lifespan
- Loyal LOY-002 FDA lifespan extension dogs conditional approval September 2026
A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved forNo final guidance, pathway decision or approval naming aging as an indication appeared; the FDA chief scientist said at the ARDD meeting that its Focus Areas of Regulatory Science report, due early in fiscal year 2027, will list aging, which is a research-priority document, not guidance.
2 searches:
- FDA aging indication healthspan drug approval pathway guidance Makary longevity October 2026
- EMA OR FDA healthy ageing indication reflection paper composite endpoint older adults regulatory September 2026
A drug regulator accepts a biological measure of aging as a trial's primary endpointNo qualification, guidance or agreed pivotal design using an aging clock as primary endpoint appeared; as of August 2026 epigenetic clocks are not among the eight qualified FDA biomarkers.
2 searches:
- epigenetic clock biomarker qualification FDA OR EMA surrogate endpoint aging trial 2026 letter of intent
- clinicaltrials.gov pivotal trial primary endpoint biological age epigenetic clock FDA agreed design 2026
Category: cheap launch
L, Launch · 5 events readA fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar yearStarship has flown 14 times in total, with Flight 14 on September 28th, 2026 the first to reach orbit; forecasters expect only a handful of flights in 2026, and Musk's weekly cadence target is for 2027, far from 100 qualifying flights in a year.
2 searches:
- orbital launches 2026 count Starship flights this year launch log
- Starship V3 launch cadence 2026 flights per year SpaceX manifest reusable heavy
A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flightNo ship has been caught or landed; Flight 14 (September 28th, 2026) ended in an ocean splashdown after about three hours and Flight 15, with the first planned tower catch of a ship, is provisionally no earlier than October 19th, 2026 with no confirmed FAA approval found.
3 searches:
- Starship flight launch October 2026 ship booster catch
- Starship ship catch tower reuse second stage recovered September 2026
- SpaceX Starship Flight 14 results orbit ship splashdown next flight 15 catch FAA
A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbitNo ship-to-ship transfer has happened; the demonstration is listed as late 2026 or 2026 Q4 and is not confirmed scheduled, and the criterion needs 100 tonnes received.
2 searches:
- Starship propellant transfer ship-to-ship demonstration HLS NASA 2026
- Starship Flight 15 plans ship-to-ship propellant transfer date HLS milestone NASA SpaceX update
A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly againArtemis III is now a 2027 Earth-orbit docking test and the first crewed landing is expected on Artemis IV in 2028; no new lander milestone surfaced in the window, and Blue Origin is repairing its pad after the May 2026 New Glenn explosion.
3 searches:
- NASA Artemis III lander crewed Moon landing schedule Starship HLS Blue Moon September 2026
- Artemis II aftermath Artemis III Artemis IV lander readiness October 2026 NASA Isaacman
- Blue Origin Blue Moon MK1 lunar landing 2026 reusable
Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burnedNo ten-tonne, six-month storage has occurred; LOXSAT (a small liquid-oxygen demonstration on Rocket Lab Electron) has slipped repeatedly and its launch status could not be confirmed, and it is far below ten tonnes in any case.
2 searches:
- cryogenic propellant long-duration storage orbit depot boil-off demonstration 2026
- Eta Space LOXSAT launch NASA cryogenic fluid management orbit demonstration news
Category: power off Earth
E, Energy · 2 events readA single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbitNo spacecraft is generating a megawatt in orbit; Gateway was paused in March 2026, its 60 kW power element is being repurposed for SR-1 Freedom (about 20 kW reactor, launch targeted December 2028), and Russia's megawatt-class Zeus tug is not before about 2030.
2 searches:
- megawatt-class power spacecraft orbit solar array 1 MW ROSA Gateway PPE nuclear electric 2026 launch
- nuclear electric spacecraft megawatt power in orbit demonstration DARPA OR NASA OR Roscosmos Zeus 2026
A radiator system sheds a megawatt of waste heat in vacuum for thirty daysNo flight test of a megawatt-scale radiator exists or is scheduled; the nearest hardware is SR-1 Freedom's kilowatt-class radiators, with no published performance figures, and earlier deployable radiators rejected only hundreds of watts to about two kilowatts.
2 searches:
- space radiator megawatt heat rejection flight test reactor NASA Fission Surface Power Space Reactor-1 Freedom 2026
- large deployable radiator flight demonstration kilowatt vacuum thermal loop 2026 orbit
Category: bodies that hold up
B, Biology · 3 events readA mammal is conceived, born, and weaned in partial gravityNo peer-reviewed report of a mammal conceived, born and weaned at one-sixth to one-half gravity appeared.
The nearest items are old JAXA centrifuge mouse work (2017 paper, 2019 lunar-gravity flight with no reproduction result) and a China microgravity mouse birth after return to Earth in December 2025.
2 searches:
- mouse OR rodent partial gravity centrifuge reproduction pregnancy space station mammal 2026
- JAXA OR NASA OR CMSA mice artificial gravity lunar gravity 1/6 g space station results published
A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravityNo crewed spin-gravity mission has flown or been scheduled; Vast has only discussed spin tests of Haven-1 (one uncrewed at end of life) and Vast-1 is a stay of up to 30 days with a launch date of 2027 or later.
2 searches:
- artificial gravity crewed rotating spacecraft Vast Gravitics Voyager Starlab spin gravity 2026 news
- spinning space station crew artificial gravity month-long mission announced Vast Haven-2 rotation test
A staple crop is grown from seed to harvest off EarthThe verify claim is settled: CAS reported in December 2022 that rice completed a seed-to-seed cycle on Tiangong (July 29th, 2022 to November 25th, 2022, about 120 days), with six seeds yielding 59.
Shenzhou-23's rice harvest was reported in August 2026 and tomatoes in March 2026, but no source gives a harvest mass near one kilogram, so the criterion is not met.
For me: Verify claim checked: the 2022 Tiangong rice seed-to-seed result (about 120 days) is confirmed by CAS, December 2022, so the claim can be cleared or reworded to cite that record (I may not edit the list). No number would move: the 2026 Shenzhou-23 rice harvest gives no mass, and the step needs at least 1 kg of edible grain or tuber.
Taken off my list on October 11th, 2026, by a later scan.
2 searches, 2 sources:
- wheat OR potato OR rice harvest grown aboard space station Tiangong Veggie kilogram 2026
- Tiangong rice full life cycle 2022 Chinese Academy of Sciences seed to seed 120 days space station
- https://english.cas.cn/newsroom/cas_media/202212/t20221206_325291.shtml
- https://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2026-08-05/detail-ihfhziqh0060650.shtml
Category: a reason to go
M, Motive · 3 events readA commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigationNo company reports ten million dollars of revenue from non-government customers for in-orbit computing or manufacturing; the orbital data-centre firms are private and show funding and valuations, not revenue, and Redwire's 2026 filings give no in-orbit manufacturing revenue split.
2 searches:
- Starcloud OR Axiom OR Sophia Space orbital computing revenue customer filing 2026
- space manufacturing in orbit revenue Varda Redwire 2026 quarterly results customer
A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the groundNo orbit-to-ground power beaming has been reported; Aetherflux's kilowatt-class Mission 1 is still listed as a 2026 launch with no report of it flying, and Caltech's 2023 MAPLE test was far below a kilowatt received.
2 searches:
- space-based solar power beaming kilowatt to ground demonstration Aetherflux Caltech Virtus 2026
- Aetherflux Apex Link satellite launch power beaming September 2026
A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premiumNo insurer has announced cover with a premium of a million dollars or more on a private lunar asset; underwriters quoted in April 2026 said they want multiple successful missions first, and the only lunar precedent found is ispace's 2022 launch-to-landing policy.
2 searches:
- lunar insurance Lloyd's syndicate Intuitive Machines Firefly Blue Ghost insured premium 2026
- space insurance market lunar mission underwriters 2026 Marsh Howden lunar lander cover
Category: the Contact Clause
C, Contact Clause · 1 event readA non-human mind produces knowledge beyond usAlphaEvolve question: its mathematics results are still an arXiv preprint (2511.02864, Georgiev, Gomez-Serrano, Tao, Wagner, November 3rd, 2025) and the search found no journal acceptance, so no peer-reviewed record yet says the construction was the system's.
AlphaTensor facts are confirmed (Nature, October 2022, 47 multiplications for 4x4 over GF(2)) and, under the strict reading ruled October 6th, 2026, it does not resolve the step. New candidate: an OpenAI internal model's disproof of Erdős's unit-distance conjecture (announced May 20th, 2026 or 21, checked by external mathematicians including Alon and Gowers), with no journal publication found.
For me: Verify claims read: AlphaEvolve is not yet in the peer-reviewed record as the source of its constructions (preprint only); AlphaTensor's facts are correct and it stays unresolved under the strict reading. Please look at the OpenAI unit-distance disproof (May 2026) as a new candidate for C1 once a journal publishes it; its model built the construction itself and outsiders verified it, but I found no peer-reviewed record yet. No move proposed; I may not edit the verify list.
Taken off my list on October 11th, 2026, by a later scan.
5 searches, 3 sources:
- AlphaEvolve peer-reviewed paper published construction discovered by system mathematics 2026
- AlphaEvolve journal publication Nature kissing number 11 dimensions matrix multiplication 4x4 complex 48 multiplications peer reviewed
- AlphaTensor Nature 2022 47 multiplications 4x4 matrices modulo 2 beyond best human-designed algorithms
- AI system discovers new mathematical proof OR construction beyond human record Nature OR Science September 2026
- OpenAI unit distance conjecture disproof Erdős paper accepted journal peer review Annals OR Nature
- https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.02864
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaTensor
- https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ai-just-solved-an-80-year-old-erdos-problem-and-mathematicians-are-amazed/
2026-10-04 63 events read, nothing moved
Category: time window
W, Window · 7 events readThe large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longerNo primary lifespan analysis of TRIAD or an equivalent trial has been published; the trial remains in progress with about 170 dogs enrolled and a 580-dog goal, and the latest peer-reviewed TRIAD paper found is the 2025 design paper.
2 searches:
- Dog Aging Project TRIAD rapamycin results October 2026
- rapamycin dogs lifespan trial published peer-reviewed September 2026
A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved forNo final guidance, pathway decision or approval naming aging as an indication appeared; the Reagan-Udall Foundation meeting on gerotherapeutic regulatory constructs was held May 27th, 2026 and its summary is dated July 31st, 2026, both before the window, and is discussion only.
2 searches:
- FDA EMA aging indication guidance healthy lifespan approval pathway October 2026
- regulator approve drug to slow aging news September 2026
A randomized human trial shows one drug delays several age-related diseases at onceNo qualifying trial reported results; TAME is still not fully funded or reported, with no efficacy results as of 2026.
2 searches:
- randomized trial older adults composite endpoint multiple age-related diseases results September 2026
- TAME trial metformin aging funding results 2026
The first drug is approved whose purpose is to slow aging, not to treat one diseaseNo FDA or EMA approval with an aging or healthspan indication appeared; the only aging-labelled item is a veterinary (dog) drug that cleared an FDA step in April 2026, which does not meet the human-regulator criterion as read here.
2 searches:
- first drug approved slow aging label FDA EMA October 2026
- regulator approve drug to slow aging news September 2026
A treatment is shown in a large trial to cut the death rate of older adults by at least a quarterNo placebo-controlled trial in unselected older adults reporting a 25 percent or greater all-cause mortality cut appeared; search returned only older observational and nursing-intervention studies.
2 searches:
- randomized trial all-cause mortality reduction older adults 25 percent September 2026
- TAME trial metformin aging funding results 2026
Someone verifiably lives past 122, the longest human life on recordThe oldest validated living person is Ethel Caterham of the UK, born August 21st, 1909, about 117 years old, well short of the 122 years 164 days needed; Jeanne Calment's record is unchanged.
2 searches:
- Gerontology Research Group oldest person verified September 2026
- world's oldest living person age supercentenarian October 2026
A drug regulator accepts a biological measure of aging as a trial's primary endpointNo FDA or EMA qualification, guidance or agreed pivotal design using an aging clock as primary endpoint appeared; as of August 2026 epigenetic clocks are not among the eight biomarkers qualified, and the September 7th, 2026 Insilico framework paper is a proposal, already noted last scan.
2 searches:
- FDA biomarker qualification epigenetic clock aging endpoint October 2026
- aging biomarker primary endpoint pivotal trial agreed FDA EMA September 2026
Category: cheap launch
L, Launch · 11 events readA fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar yearStarship Flight 14 launched September 28th, 2026 and reached orbit (about 275 km) for the first time, deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites, but one Raptor shut down early and the ship was deorbited after about 2 orbits, splashing down in the Pacific roughly 3 hours after liftoff.
This is the first Starship orbital flight, one of the 100 needed in a calendar year, and neither stage is a reuse flight, so no probability moves; the criterion needs 100 orbital flights by a fully reusable vehicle with both stages recovered on half of them.
3 searches, 3 sources:
- Starship Flight 14 result orbit booster ship splashdown September 28 2026
- SpaceX Starship Flight 14 outcome October 2026
- SpaceX orbital launch log 2026 launches so far Falcon 9 count September 2026
- https://www.astronomy.com/whats-launching-this-week/starship-reaches-orbit-on-14th-test-flight/
- https://www.fox13seattle.com/news/spacex-preps-starship-flight-14-historic-first-orbital-test-launch-monday
- https://abcnews.com/video/136824936/
A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flightOn Flight 14 (September 28th, 2026) the booster splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico and the ship made a controlled splashdown in the Pacific, with no tower catch attempted for either stage; neither was retrieved or declared reflight-ready.
The flight reached orbit but no recovery occurred, so the criterion is not met and no probability moves; catch attempts are deferred to Flight 15, with provisional planning pointing to October 19th, 2026 at the earliest.
2 searches, 3 sources:
- Starship Flight 14 result orbit booster ship splashdown September 28 2026
- Starship Flight 14 booster Super Heavy Gulf splashdown not recovered Flight 15 catch plan
- https://www.astronomy.com/whats-launching-this-week/starship-reaches-orbit-on-14th-test-flight/
- https://www.fox13seattle.com/news/spacex-preps-starship-flight-14-historic-first-orbital-test-launch-monday
- https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/starship-just-reached-orbit-for-the-1st-time-whats-next-for-the-spacex-megarocket
A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbitNo propellant transfer has been attempted as of September 26th, 2026 per NASA OIG reporting; the demonstration remains targeted no earlier than late 2026 with no firm date, and the first Starship orbital flight on September 28th, 2026 did not include one.
2 searches:
- Starship ship-to-ship propellant transfer date HLS NASA milestone September 2026
- Starship propellant transfer demonstration Flight 15 Flight 16 timeline after orbit Musk October 2026
A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly againPlans are unchanged: Artemis III is a late-2027 Earth-orbit docking test with no landing, and the first crewed landing is Artemis IV, targeted for early 2028.
No new schedule change surfaced in the window.
2 searches:
- Artemis lunar lander crewed landing Starship Blue Moon news October 2026
- NASA Artemis III Artemis IV lander schedule announcement September 2026 Isaacman
Mass to low Earth orbit is sold for less than two hundred dollars a kilogramThe only public Starship contract price found is the 90 million dollar figure from a Voyager Technologies filing, about 600 dollars per kg at 150 tonnes; Musk's July 29th, 2026 sub-100-dollar claim is a target, not a sold price, and both predate the window.
2 searches:
- launch price per kg low Earth orbit Starship price list contract September 2026
- SpaceX Starship launch services price per kilogram customer contract announced 2026 Rocket Lab Neutron price
A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched partsNo assembly of a structure over 100 metres from five or more launches was reported; results were concept studies and commercial station schedules (Haven-1 and Axiom modules slipping to 2027 or later).
2 searches:
- large structure assembled in orbit 100 meters robotic assembly launches September 2026
- in-space assembly large truss antenna solar array kilometer orbit Starlab Axiom Vast station assembly 2026 news
A hundred tonnes of material dug or made on the Moon are delivered to orbit in one yearNo lunar material has been delivered to orbit in any quantity; activity is ground prototypes (NASA solar carbothermal demo in May 2026, Interlune's excavator prototype) and contracts for later this decade.
2 searches:
- lunar regolith oxygen extraction delivered to orbit tonnes Moon mining September 2026
- Interlune helium-3 Moon regolith excavation Blue Origin lunar resources customer 2026
A hundred tonnes a year of material from the Moon or an asteroid are delivered to orbitNeither route node has resolved; no lunar or asteroid material delivered to orbit was reported in the window.
2 searches:
- lunar regolith oxygen extraction delivered to orbit tonnes Moon mining September 2026
- asteroid mining material delivered orbit AstroForge Karman+ September 2026
A hundred tonnes of material from an asteroid are delivered to orbit around Earth or the Moon in one yearNo asteroid material delivery was reported; AstroForge's Odin lost contact after its February 2025 launch, its Vestri lander is still ahead, and Karman+ aims for a first launch in 2027.
2 searches:
- asteroid mining material delivered orbit AstroForge Karman+ September 2026
- asteroid mining mission news October 2026 AstroForge Odin Vestri launch
Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burnedNo ten-tonne cryogenic storage in orbit was reported; the nearest effort, NASA and Eta Space's LOXSAT, is a roughly 135 kg satellite technology demonstration with a nine-month plan, far below ten tonnes, and a full-scale depot is not expected before 2030.
2 searches:
- orbital depot cryogenic propellant long-duration storage boil-off flight test September October 2026
- LOXSAT Eta Space Rocket Lab launch cryogenic oxygen orbit 2026 status
A tonne of propellant made from off-Earth material is fired in a rocket engineNo propellant has been produced off Earth and fired; ISRU demonstrations remain ground work or planned flights, such as OffWorld's Prospector 1 scheduled for late 2027.
2 searches:
- in-situ resource utilization propellant produced on Moon Mars fired thruster water ice September 2026
- lunar ISRU demonstration water ice oxygen propellant production Moon mission news September 2026 Intuitive Machines Lunar Outpost
Category: power off Earth
E, Energy · 10 events readA single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbitNo operator reported a spacecraft generating and using a megawatt in orbit since September 27th, 2026.
Results show only plans (Orbital Composites 2027 kilowatt demo, K2 Space buses of about 20 kilowatts).
2 searches:
- megawatt-class spacecraft power in orbit operator October 2026
- high power solar electric spacecraft 1 megawatt orbit flight September 2026
A nuclear reactor runs on the lunar surface for a yearIdaho National Laboratory's request for information on Fission Surface Power closed September 8th, 2026, with a request for proposals to follow, and the target remains about 2030.
Plans and procurement steps only, no reactor operating.
2 searches:
- NASA Fission Surface Power lunar reactor September 2026
- lunar nuclear reactor 40 kilowatt contract award October 2026
A site on the Moon has a hundred kilowatts of electricity through the lunar night, for a year, from any sourceNo lunar site with 100 kilowatts through the night was reported.
Northrop Grumman's Lunar Infrastructure Demo plans (announced August 4th, 2026, before the window) and Astrobotic LunaGrid (operational 2028 target) are plans.
2 searches:
- lunar surface power 100 kilowatts lunar night site September 2026
- Moon base power system lunar night mission record October 2026
Solar panels with storage keep a lunar polar site powered through a whole yearNo polar solar-plus-storage system has operated on the Moon; Astrobotic's LunaGrid and VOLT remain in ground testing with an operational target of 2028.
2 searches:
- lunar south pole solar array storage power demonstration September 2026
- Astrobotic LunaGrid Honeybee vertical solar array lunar 2026 news
Power sent down from orbit keeps a site on the Moon running for a yearNo orbit-to-Moon power delivery was reported; Volta's LightGrid is a plan with an Earth-orbit test and surface benefit not before 2028.
2 searches:
- power beaming Moon laser microwave lunar surface demonstration September 2026
- Volta Space Technologies lunar power beaming orbit reflected sunlight Moon October 2026
High-temperature superconducting wire costs a tenth of what it does todayNo price list or procurement record at 15 dollars per kiloamp-metre or less appeared; results only restate industry targets of 10 to 20 dollars per kiloamp-metre.
2 searches:
- REBCO HTS tape price per kiloamp-metre September 2026
- high-temperature superconductor wire cost reduction manufacturer capacity announcement October 2026
A fusion power plant delivers net electricity to a gridNo fusion plant exported net electricity.
Helion's Orion is under construction with a grid connection required by end of 2028 and SPARC is not designed to produce electricity.
2 searches:
- fusion power plant grid electricity SPARC ARC Helion Polaris September 2026
- fusion plant first electricity to grid Helion Orion Microsoft October 2026
A power source makes a hundred megawatts of electricity while weighing no more than a hundred tonnesNo 100 megawatt system at or under 100 tonnes was tested.
Only an unsubstantiated Kepler Fusion 2026 target appeared, with no mass or test record.
2 searches:
- 100 megawatt compact reactor or fusion power system test under 100 tonnes September 2026
- space nuclear electric propulsion megawatt reactor ground test September 2026
A fission-electric power system built for spaceflight makes a hundred megawatts of electricityNo 100 megawatt space fission test was reported; the nearest flight plan is SR-1 Freedom at about 20 kilowatts electric, scheduled for end of 2028.
2 searches:
- space nuclear electric propulsion megawatt reactor ground test September 2026
- NASA DARPA space reactor megawatt power conversion radiator test October 2026
A radiator system sheds a megawatt of waste heat in vacuum for thirty daysNo megawatt, thirty-day vacuum heat rejection flight test was reported.
A shape-memory-alloy radiator flight test is scheduled for spring 2027 at far smaller scale, and MARVL is design work.
2 searches:
- space radiator megawatt heat rejection flight test orbit 2026
- spacecraft thermal radiator in-orbit demonstration kilowatt heat rejection October 2026
Category: fast ships
D, Drive · 7 events readA nuclear-powered engine produces a kilometre per second of velocity change in spaceNo reactor-powered spacecraft has flown or accumulated delta-v in the window; DARPA DRACO was cancelled in 2025 and SR-1 Freedom remains a plan for a December 2028 launch.
2 searches:
- nuclear thermal electric propulsion spacecraft in space delta-v news September 2026
- NASA nuclear electric propulsion SR-1 Freedom reactor launch 2028 update September 2026
Nuclear propulsion is used on several missions a yearNo new nuclear-propulsion mission flew or was funded in the window; DRACO stays cancelled and SR-1 Freedom is still a 2028 plan.
2 searches:
- nuclear reactor spacecraft launch Jetson DRACO fission propulsion October 2026
- DARPA DRACO cancelled nuclear thermal rocket demonstration status 2026
Three missions in one year reach the asteroid belt within twelve months of leaving EarthStarship Flight 14 reached orbit on September 28th, 2026 and was cut short, but no mission reached the asteroid belt within twelve months of leaving Earth; Psyche arrives in 2029 after a multi-year cruise.
2 searches:
- Starship Flight 14 result September 2026 asteroid belt mission arrival
- spacecraft arrives asteroid belt Psyche Ceres mission within year fast transit September 2026
Megawatt solar-electric propulsion is used on several missions a yearNo megawatt-class solar-electric mission flew in the window; the PPE is about 60 kilowatts and NASA's lithium MPD thruster work (120 kilowatts, February 2026) is ground testing.
2 searches:
- megawatt solar electric propulsion mission Power and Propulsion Element Gateway September 2026
- high-power electric propulsion tug megawatt thruster test announcement October 2026
A crew travels beyond the Earth-Moon system and returns to EarthNothing new in the window; Artemis II flew around the Moon in April 2026, well short of five million kilometres, and crewed Mars plans remain undated, with uncrewed Starships targeting the November to December 2026 window.
2 searches:
- Artemis II crew beyond Moon return Mars crewed mission news September 2026
- crewed Mars mission SpaceX Starship Mars 2026 window crew plans September 2026
An engine with both high thrust and high exhaust speed fires in spaceNo in-space test reached 100 km/s exhaust speed with over one kilonewton; Pulsar Fusion's Sunbird first plasma (April 2026) is a ground test, and thrust measurement is only a stated next step.
2 searches:
- fusion drive high thrust high exhaust velocity space test October 2026
- Helicity Space Princeton Satellite Systems fusion propulsion thrust milestone September 2026
A site beyond the Earth-Moon system is crewed without a break for a yearNo site beyond the Earth-Moon system is crewed; a July 25th, 2026 multi-agency roadmap only plans a lunar base and crewed Mars around 2035.
2 searches:
- Mars base crewed outpost year-round occupation plan beyond Moon 2026 news September 2026
- permanent crewed station Mars or deep space continuously occupied year Moon base crew rotation October 2026
Category: bodies that hold up
B, Biology · 11 events readA mammal is conceived, born, and weaned in partial gravityNo peer-reviewed report of a mammal conceived, born and weaned in partial gravity appeared.
Results only describe the existing JAXA MARS centrifuge work and planned reproduction studies.
2 searches:
- mammal born partial gravity centrifuge mice pregnancy weaned study September 2026
- NASA JAXA rodent reproduction artificial gravity Moon Mars gravity October 2026
A person lives a full year in partial gravity and comes home without disqualifying harmNo person has completed twelve months at partial gravity and no such health report appeared.
Lunar surface stays remain planned at days to weeks, with Artemis crewed landing not before 2028.
2 searches:
- astronaut year-long mission lunar gravity health outcomes peer-reviewed September 2026
- Artemis crew lunar surface stay twelve months partial gravity planning October 2026
A child is born off Earth and raised there through early childhoodNo child has been born off Earth.
A SpaceBorn United reproduction consortium met September 26th, 2026 to September 28th, 2026 in Amsterdam, which is a roadmap meeting, not the event.
2 searches:
- first baby born in space human reproduction off Earth news September 2026
- SpaceBorn United embryo orbit mission update October 2026
A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravityNo crewed spinning spacecraft has produced artificial gravity for thirty days.
Vast says its rotating habitat is not before the 2030s, unchanged from the prior scan.
2 searches:
- Vast Haven-2 artificial gravity spinning station crewed demonstration September 2026
- rotating space station artificial gravity crew month spin launch news October 2026
People live for a year in a spinning habitat with Earth-normal gravityNo rotating habitat with Earth-normal gravity exists or is under construction in orbit; results are only concepts such as Voyager Station and Von Braun, with repeated delays.
2 searches:
- Gateway Foundation Von Braun rotating space habitat Earth gravity news September 2026
- spinning habitat one gravity ten people occupied orbit construction 2026 October
Humans can live off Earth long term, by partial gravity or by a spinning habitatNeither route node has resolved; no milestone for either appeared in the window.
2 searches:
- long-term human settlement off Earth partial gravity or spinning habitat milestone October 2026
- spinning habitat one gravity ten people occupied orbit construction 2026 October
A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by halfNo peer-reviewed flight measurement of a shield halving deep-space dose appeared.
Artemis I and II radiation work, including the AstroRad vest, is about solar events and orientation, not a matched 50 percent GCR comparison.
2 searches:
- radiation shielding flight measurement deep space dose reduction Artemis II results September 2026
- magnetic shield OR water shield OR hydrogen-rich shielding crew cosmic ray dose halved flight test 2026
A crew off Earth lives for a year with most of its food produced on site and its water and air recycledNo off-Earth crew has done twelve months with over half of calories grown on site.
Ground analogues like Lunar Palace and Tiangong recycling claims (about 95 percent water, 100 percent oxygen regeneration) do not meet the criterion.
2 searches:
- closed-loop life support year-long crew food grown on site Lunar Palace OR Biosphere OR MELiSSA September 2026
- Tiangong OR ISS water recovery oxygen recycling percent record crew food production October 2026
A treatment is approved that makes people substantially more resistant to chronic space radiationNo regulator approval or agency standard adoption of a treatment halving chronic space radiation risk appeared.
Only research and countermeasure development was found.
2 searches:
- FDA approves radioprotector OR radiation countermeasure astronauts cancer risk drug approval September 2026
- NASA crew health standard space radiation cancer risk countermeasure gene therapy October 2026
A staple crop is grown from seed to harvest off EarthThe Tiangong two-generation rice harvest was on August 5th, 2026, before the leaf window, and was a science sample collection with no reported one-kilogram edible harvest.
A second wheat generation is nearing the end of its cycle but no harvest weight was reported.
2 searches:
- wheat OR rice OR potato harvest space station Tiangong crop grain kilogram September 2026
- Shenzhou rice wheat grown seed to seed Tiangong harvest 2026
A major operation under anaesthesia is performed off Earth and the patient survivesNo operation under anaesthesia has been performed off Earth.
Only simulated robotic surgery on the ISS (SpaceMIRA) and parabolic flight anaesthesia studies appeared.
2 searches:
- surgery performed in space astronaut operation under anesthesia first off Earth September 2026
- space surgery robot microgravity operation astronaut medical evacuation ISS October 2026
Category: a reason to go
M, Motive · 5 events readA commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigationNo filing showing ten million dollars of in-orbit service revenue appeared.
Starcloud raised 250 million dollars on August 21st, 2026 (before the window), is pre-commercial, and plans Starcloud-2 in October 2026.
2 searches:
- Varda OR Space Forge OR Starcloud OR Axiom orbital data center revenue filing in-orbit manufacturing customers October 2026
- in-orbit computing OR manufacturing company annual revenue million paying customers September 2026
A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the groundNo orbital power-beaming demonstration was reported as launched or completed in the window.
OHISAMA and Aetherflux remain planned for 2026 with no new launch news.
2 searches:
- space-based solar power beaming ground receiver kilowatt demonstration Caltech OR Aetherflux OR OHISAMA October 2026
- Aetherflux power beaming launch orbit demonstration 2026 news
A hundred people are living and working off Earth at the same time, for payCrew counts off Earth remain around 10 to 14 with a record of 19 (September 11th, 2024).
Nothing near one hundred paid workers appeared.
2 searches:
- number of people in space record crew count ISS Tiangong commercial station paid crew September 2026
- hundred people in orbit at once workers space station crew October 2026
Something mined or made off Earth is sold at a profitNo company reported profitable sales of an off-Earth product.
Interlune's helium-3 supply agreements are future deliveries (2029 onward) and AstroForge is pre-revenue.
2 searches:
- asteroid OR lunar mining company sells product revenue profit audited accounts September 2026
- lunar regolith OR helium-3 OR water ice sale commercial contract Interlune OR Astrobotic October 2026
A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premiumNo new lunar-asset insurance policy with a million-dollar premium was reported.
Results are general market commentary and older 2022 ispace coverage.
2 searches:
- insurance lunar lander OR lunar asset policy underwriter Lloyd's Intuitive Machines OR Firefly OR ispace September 2026
- space insurance market lunar mission cover premium October 2026
Category: governments
R, Regime · 7 events readA crewed lunar program, government or commercial, keeps flying across two changes of its principal backerNo change of head of government occurred; Congress passed a continuing resolution through December 11th, 2026 keeping Artemis funded, which is not a backer change.
2 searches:
- NASA Artemis budget Congress appropriations Moon program September 2026
- Artemis lunar program Congress shutdown continuing resolution NASA fiscal 2027 appropriations September 2026
Space spending recovers within three years of the next recessionNo NBER recession dating or end date appeared; the US is not officially in recession, with forecasters citing risk around 30 percent.
2 searches:
- NBER recession declared US economy September 2026
- US economy recession GDP unemployment jobs report September 2026
The major space powers are bound by a ban on debris-creating anti-satellite testsNo legally binding ASAT test ban with US, China and Russia as parties appeared; the existing moratorium efforts are non-binding and Russia and China opposed them.
2 searches:
- anti-satellite test ban treaty United Nations China Russia United States September 2026
- UN General Assembly First Committee outer space debris anti-satellite October 2026
The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off EarthNo treaty or mutually recognising laws on extracted-resource ownership appeared; China has no space-resources statute and still criticises the Artemis Accords.
2 searches:
- space resources mining legal framework US China agreement October 2026
- China space resources law lunar ILRS ownership extracted resources Artemis Accords September 2026
An off-Earth site accepts people as permanent residentsNo off-Earth site has published a permanent resident status; results were only academic discussion and ISS crew news.
2 searches:
- off-Earth permanent residency Moon Mars settlement residents legal status September 2026
- space station resident status indefinite stay voluntary residence Moon Mars settlers policy September 2026
The United States and China recognise each other's keep-out zones around off-Earth installationsNo US-China instrument recognising each other's keep-out zones appeared; September 2026 commentary (NASA chief Isaacman) concerned racing to the lunar surface, not an agreement.
2 searches:
- lunar safety zones keep-out zones China US Artemis Accords ILRS recognition September 2026
- US China space talks bilateral agreement lunar safety zone dialogue October 2026
A space traffic authority among the major powers can enforce rules on manoeuvres and launch windowsNo multi-power body with enforcement authority over manoeuvres or launch windows exists; coordination remains informal and bilateral, with US civil traffic work moving to Commerce.
2 searches:
- space traffic coordination international authority agreement launch windows manoeuvres September 2026
- UN space traffic management body China United States Russia enforcement authority 2026 agreement
Category: the Contact Clause
C, Contact Clause · 5 events readA non-human mind produces knowledge beyond usAnthropic reported Claude produced a full Lean formalization of Fermat's Last Theorem, checked by Kevin Buzzard, but it formalizes a known human proof so it is not a result beyond human work; OpenAI's Navier-Stokes claim (September 8th, 2026) still has no independent peer review and Clay has not accepted it, and Axiom Math has AI proofs accepted by journals, though not shown acknowledged as beyond human results.
Probability is already 0.95 so nothing moves.
3 searches, 4 sources:
- AI-discovered proof peer-reviewed Lean verified beyond human mathematicians September 2026
- Navier-Stokes OpenAI proof review October 2026
- Claude Fermat's Last Theorem Lean formalization Anthropic Buzzard
- https://www.anthropic.com/news/formalizing-fermats-last-theorem
- https://thenextweb.com/news/anthropic-claude-fermat-last-theorem-lean-buzzard
- https://www.implicator.ai/clay-institute-navier-stokes-openai-proof-claim/
- https://axios.com/2026/05/26/axiom-ai-math-journal
Humans learn from itNo new evidence of an AI-originated concept reaching the two-textbook or majority-of-papers bar in a named field; results were general AlphaFold and AlphaEvolve background.
2 searches:
- AI-originated concept adopted textbooks field standard method AlphaFold AlphaEvolve September 2026
- AI-discovered proof peer-reviewed Lean verified beyond human mathematicians September 2026
An intelligence not descended from us is detectedNo confirmed technosignature or complex-life detection; K2-18b microbial biosignature claims are increasingly disputed and Mars findings concern possible microbial proxies, neither meeting the criterion.
2 searches:
- technosignature detection confirmed independent teams peer-reviewed September 2026
- K2-18b biosignature or Mars life evidence new results October 2026
A message from elsewhere is understoodNo verified non-human signal exists to decode; the only decoding story is the 2023 SETI Institute Sign in Space art project simulation.
2 searches:
- SETI signal decoded extraterrestrial message news October 2026
- technosignature detection confirmed independent teams peer-reviewed September 2026
A real exchange with a machine mindNo independently replicated inside measurement for any AI system and no resolved C2 precursor; only symposium papers and an upcoming book on machine consciousness appeared.
2 searches:
- AI consciousness independent replication measurement machine mind study September 2026
- Navier-Stokes OpenAI proof review October 2026
2026-09-27 17 events read, nothing moved
Category: time window
W, Window · 3 events readThe large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longerThe TRIAD trial remains in its treatment and observation phases, with early enrollees such as Zoe and Jack having completed the three-year study period but no primary lifespan analysis published in the window; nothing changed since the September 20th, 2026 scan.
1 search:
- Dog Aging Project TRIAD rapamycin trial results September 2026
A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved forNo FDA or EMA guidance, pathway decision, or approval establishing aging or a composite of age-related diseases as an approvable indication appeared in the window; the FDA's Plausible Mechanism Pathway, launched earlier in 2026 for individualized therapies, predates the window and does not itself name aging as an indication.
1 search:
- FDA aging as indication guidance approval pathway September 2026
A drug regulator accepts a biological measure of aging as a trial's primary endpointNo new FDA or EMA qualification of a biological aging clock as a primary trial endpoint appeared in the window; the Nature Biotechnology paper on six proteomic aging clocks in the rentosertib trial, published September 7th, 2026, predates the window and explicitly treats the clocks as exploratory, not FDA-qualified.
1 search:
- FDA biological aging clock biomarker trial endpoint qualification September 2026
Category: cheap launch
L, Launch · 5 events readA fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar yearThe FAA granted final launch approval on September 26th, 2026 and SpaceX completed the pre-launch rehearsal, setting Starship's first orbital flight attempt (Flight 14) for September 28th, 2026, after slipping from September 22nd, 2026.
The vehicle has still not reached orbit even once, so the hundred-flights-in-a-year criterion is unaffected; this is a schedule update, not an event the criterion counts.
3 searches, 2 sources:
- Starship Flight 14 launch result September 28 2026
- "Starship" "Flight 14" launched result outcome
- Starship Flight 14 launch scrubbed delayed postponed
- https://www.teslaoracle.com/2026/09/27/spacex-completes-starship-flight-14-launch-rehearsal-gets-final-faa-approval-for-launch-on-monday-more/
- https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-starship-flight-14-1st-orbital-launch-what-time
A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flightFlight 14's plan is unchanged from the September 20th, 2026 scan: both the booster and the ship will attempt controlled splashdowns rather than tower catches, with the first ship-catch attempt still pushed to the undated Flight 15.
1 search:
- Starship booster catch ship recovery Flight 14 result
A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbitThe dedicated ship-to-ship propellant transfer demonstration remains targeted for no earlier than late 2026 with no firm date; nothing new appeared in the window.
1 search:
- Starship propellant transfer demonstration schedule Q4 2026
A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly againArtemis III remains redefined as a 2027 test of the two landers and Orion in Earth orbit with no crewed landing, with the first crewed lunar landing still assigned to Artemis IV, targeted for early 2028; unchanged since the September 20th, 2026 scan.
1 search:
- Artemis III crewed lunar landing schedule news September 2026
Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burnedNo operator reported ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant held in orbit for six months and then burned; boil-off mitigation work (mechanical cryocoolers, multi-layer insulation) remains at the design and short-duration-test stage, unchanged since the September 20th, 2026 scan.
1 search:
- cryogenic propellant depot orbit six months boil-off test 2026
Category: power off Earth
E, Energy · 2 events readA single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbitNo operator reported a spacecraft generating and using a megawatt of power in orbit in the window; NASA's lithium-fed magnetoplasmadynamic thruster testing, aimed at 500 kilowatts to 1 megawatt per thruster in coming years, remains ground-based development.
1 search:
- megawatt spacecraft power orbit news September 2026
A radiator system sheds a megawatt of waste heat in vacuum for thirty daysSierra Space completed thermal-vacuum-chamber testing of a deployable radiator prototype at NASA Johnson in the window, but this is a ground-based, short-duration test, not a megawatt-scale, thirty-day vacuum heat-rejection flight test; nothing meets the criterion.
1 search:
- megawatt radiator vacuum test spacecraft 2026
Category: bodies that hold up
B, Biology · 3 events readA mammal is conceived, born, and weaned in partial gravityThe NASA-JAXA Joint Partial-gravity Rodent Research centrifuge study, the closest ongoing effort, exposes adult mice to thirty days of partial gravity rather than a full gestation-to-weaning cycle; SpaceBorn's proposed embryo-in-orbit missions remain planned for later this decade.
No published result meets the criterion.
1 search:
- mammal born weaned partial gravity space experiment 2026
A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravityHaven-1 itself does not spin; Vast's spinning artificial-gravity ambition sits with Haven-2 and beyond, with no firm date, and its crewed artificial-gravity demonstration (Vast-2) remains at no earlier than 2027.
Unchanged since the September 20th, 2026 scan.
3 searches:
- Vast crewed artificial gravity demonstration schedule 2026 2027
- Vast Haven-1 launch status September 2026 spin gravity demonstration
- Vast-1 crewed mission launch date 2026 artificial gravity spin
A staple crop is grown from seed to harvest off EarthNo harvest of a staple crop off Earth was reported in the window; lunar-potato research remains ground-based work at Oregon State, and the ISS Veggie system grows salad greens, not a calorie crop to harvest weight.
1 search:
- staple crop harvest space station Moon September 2026
Category: a reason to go
M, Motive · 3 events readA commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigationVarda announced new Chief Revenue Officer and Chief Financial Officer hires in the window but disclosed no revenue figure; its largest customer relationship, the United Therapeutics partnership, was signed in May 2026, before the window, and no ten-million-dollar annual revenue figure has been disclosed.
1 search:
- Varda Space Industries revenue orbital manufacturing September 2026
A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the groundOHISAMA has still not launched in the window; it remains slated for fiscal year 2026 on Space One's KAIROS rocket, and mission specifications show its total output is about 720 watts, below the kilowatt threshold even if the demonstration succeeds.
1 search:
- OHISAMA JAXA space solar power beaming launch September 2026
A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premiumNo insurer or insured reported a lunar-asset policy in the window; coverage discussion remains general to the space insurance market (estimated at 4.43 billion dollars in 2026), with no named lunar-surface or lunar-orbit policy.
1 search:
- lunar asset commercial insurance million dollar premium 2026
Category: the Contact Clause
C, Contact Clause · 1 event readA non-human mind produces knowledge beyond usOpenAI's disputed Navier-Stokes construction, announced September 8th, 2026, remains under review: as of September 26th, 2026 the Clay Mathematics Institute still lists the problem as active and OpenAI has not claimed the prize, while the priority dispute with Buckmaster and Alpoge continues unsettled.
Unchanged since the September 20th, 2026 scan.
1 search:
- OpenAI Navier-Stokes proof status update September 2026
2026-09-20 17 events read, nothing moved
Category: time window
W, Window · 3 events readThe large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longerThe TRIAD trial remains in progress, with over 180 of a target 580 dogs enrolled and the first few having completed the three-year study period; no primary lifespan analysis has published, and the trial is slated to conclude in November 2029.
1 search:
- Dog Aging Project TRIAD rapamycin trial results September 2026
A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved forNo FDA or EMA guidance, pathway decision, or approval accepting aging or a composite of age-related diseases as an indication appeared in the window; only unrelated age-related-disease approvals, such as a wet macular degeneration drug in July 2026, were found.
1 search:
- FDA EMA aging indication guidance drug approval September 2026
A drug regulator accepts a biological measure of aging as a trial's primary endpointNo FDA or EMA guidance or qualification accepting a biological aging clock as a primary trial endpoint appeared in the window.
A September 7th, 2026 Nature Biotechnology paper on six proteomic aging clocks in a rentosertib trial, which predates the window, treats them as exploratory measures and explicitly states none holds FDA Context-of-Use qualification.
2 searches:
- FDA biomarker aging clock trial endpoint qualification 2026
- "proteomic aging clocks" phase 2a clinical trial Nature Biotechnology 2026 FDA endpoint
Category: cheap launch
L, Launch · 5 events readA fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar yearNo orbital Starship flight has occurred; Flight 14, its first attempted orbital flight, remains targeted for September 28th, 2026 after slipping from September 22nd, 2026.
This is the same delay already reported in the September 19th, 2026 scan; nothing new in the window.
1 search:
- Starship flight 14 launch date update September 2026
A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flightConfirmed again in the window: Flight 14 on September 28th, 2026 will not attempt a tower catch of either stage, splashing both down in the Gulf of Mexico instead, with the first ship-catch attempt pushed to the undated Flight 15.
This matches the September 19th, 2026 scan's finding; nothing changed.
1 search:
- Starship booster catch ship recovery September 2026
A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbitThe dedicated Starship-to-Starship propellant transfer demonstration remains scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026 with no firm date; nothing new appeared in the window.
1 search:
- Starship propellant transfer demonstration 2026 update schedule
A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly againNo new lunar-landing news appeared in the window; Artemis III remains a redefined 2027 test mission, with the first crewed landing still planned for Artemis IV around 2028.
1 search:
- Artemis III crewed lunar landing schedule news September 2026
Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burnedNo operator reported ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant held in orbit for six months and then burned; boil-off mitigation research and depot concepts remain at the design and short-duration-test stage.
1 search:
- cryogenic propellant depot stored orbit six months boil-off 2026
Category: power off Earth
E, Energy · 2 events readA single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbitNo operator reported a spacecraft generating and using a megawatt of power in orbit in the window; the nearest project, NASA's Space Reactor-1 Freedom at just over 20 kilowatts, remains years from that scale and targets a December 2028 launch.
1 search:
- spacecraft megawatt power orbit September 2026 news
A radiator system sheds a megawatt of waste heat in vacuum for thirty daysNothing in the window reports a megawatt-scale radiator tested in vacuum for thirty days; NASA's modular assembled radiator work (MARVL) remains a design study addressing deployable area, not a flight test.
1 search:
- megawatt radiator heat rejection vacuum spacecraft test 2026
Category: bodies that hold up
B, Biology · 3 events readA mammal is conceived, born, and weaned in partial gravityNo report of a full gestation-to-weaning cycle at partial gravity appeared in the window; the NASA-JAXA Joint Partial-gravity Rodent Research centrifuge study on the space station remains the closest ongoing effort but has not published results.
1 search:
- mammal born weaned partial gravity space experiment September 2026
A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravityNo crewed spin-gravity flight occurred in the window; Vast's crewed artificial-gravity demonstration (Vast-2) remains planned for no earlier than 2027, unchanged since the September 19th, 2026 scan.
1 search:
- crewed spin gravity demonstration spacecraft rotating module September 2026
A staple crop is grown from seed to harvest off EarthThe only harvest news found, University of Texas chickpeas grown in simulated lunar regolith, is ground-based work from March 2026 that predates the window and does not meet the off-Earth-site requirement; nothing grown off Earth was reported.
1 search:
- staple crop grown harvest off Earth space station Moon September 2026
Category: a reason to go
M, Motive · 3 events readA commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigationNo new disclosure of 10 million dollars or more in a single year of orbital-work revenue appeared in the window; Varda's United Therapeutics partnership, its largest customer relationship, was signed in May 2026, before the window, and no revenue figure has been disclosed.
1 search:
- Varda Space Industries revenue customer orbital manufacturing September 2026
A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the groundNo kilowatt-scale orbit-to-ground power beam occurred in the window.
One low-quality aggregator site claimed JAXA's OHISAMA had already demonstrated a transmission, but mid-September 2026 reporting confirms OHISAMA has not launched: it is slated to fly on Space One's KAIROS 5 rocket, whose first three flights all failed, most recently in March 2026. The uncorroborated claim is disregarded.
4 searches:
- space-based solar power beaming kilowatt demonstration ground receiver 2026
- JAXA OHISAMA satellite launch date power beaming demonstration Yokohama
- OHISAMA space solar power JAXA September 2026 kilowatt result
- "OHISAMA" launch September 2026
A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premiumNo insurer or insured reported a lunar-asset policy in the window; industry coverage describes lunar programmes as a segment of the space insurance market where commercial cover still cannot be structured.
1 search:
- commercial insurance lunar asset premium million dollar 2026
Category: the Contact Clause
C, Contact Clause · 1 event readA non-human mind produces knowledge beyond usOpenAI's disputed Navier-Stokes manuscript, announced September 8th, 2026, remains unresolved in the window: the Clay Mathematics Institute still lists the problem as unsolved and has not certified the claimed counterexample, and the priority dispute with mathematicians Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpoge continues unsettled.
Nothing changed since the September 19th, 2026 scan first noted this.
3 searches:
- AI mathematics proof beyond human peer-reviewed acknowledged September 2026
- OpenAI Navier-Stokes proof peer review priority dispute update
- Navier-Stokes OpenAI proof status September 19 20 2026
2026-09-19 44 events read, nothing moved
Category: time window
W, Window · 6 events readThe large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longerThe TRIAD trial is still enrolling and in its medication phase; no primary lifespan analysis has been published, so nothing bears on the criterion.
2 searches:
- Dog Aging Project TRIAD rapamycin trial results 2026
- Dog Aging Project rapamycin lifespan study September 2026
A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved forNo FDA or EMA guidance accepting slowing aging, healthy lifespan, or a composite of age-related diseases as an approvable indication was published in the window; the FDA still does not recognize aging as an indication.
3 searches:
- FDA guidance aging as indication drug approval 2026
- EMA guidance slowing aging indication drug label 2026
- FDA aging indication guidance document August September 2026
A randomized human trial shows one drug delays several age-related diseases at onceAFAR, the TAME trial's own sponsor, is still fundraising to launch the trial as of August 29th, 2026 and has not completed enrollment or published results.
Several low-quality websites circulated an unverified claim of a positive interim result and an unrelated Eli Lilly endpoint claim; neither is corroborated by AFAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, or a primary source, so it is disregarded.
4 searches, 2 sources:
- TAME trial metformin update 2026
- composite age-related disease drug trial results 2026
- TAME trial afar.org status funding 2026 launch
- TAME trial September 2026 metformin funding announcement
- https://www.afar.org/tame-trial
- https://research.mental-momentum.ai/r/what-is-status-tame-metformin-trial-2026-684ysc
The first drug is approved whose purpose is to slow aging, not to treat one diseaseLoyal's LOY-002 has FDA acceptance of its effectiveness and safety technical sections from before this window, but full approval has not occurred; no FDA or EMA approval for a slowing-aging indication happened in the window.
3 searches:
- first drug approved slow aging FDA EMA 2026
- Loyal LOY-002 FDA full approval dog aging drug 2026
- Loyal LOY-002 reasonable expectation effectiveness FDA date accepted
A treatment is shown in a large trial to cut the death rate of older adults by at least a quarterNo randomized trial in adults 65 and over with five or more years of follow-up reporting a 25 percent or greater cut in all-cause mortality was found; current rapamycin and senolytic trials measure healthspan biomarkers over shorter periods, not mortality.
2 searches:
- large clinical trial mortality reduction older adults 25% 2026
- randomized trial reduces all-cause mortality elderly rapamycin senolytic 2026
Someone verifiably lives past 122, the longest human life on recordEthel Caterham, the GRG-validated oldest living person, turned 117 on August 21st, 2026, well short of the 122-year, 164-day record; this does not change the probability.
2 searches, 2 sources:
- gerontology research group oldest living person 2026 supercentenarian record
- Ethel Caterham oldest person world age September 2026
- https://www.grg-supercentenarians.org/2026/08/21/ethel-caterham-worlds-oldest-living-person-celebrated-her-117th-birthday/
- https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/21/uk/ethel-caterham-oldest-person-alive-scli-intl
Category: cheap launch
L, Launch · 7 events readA fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar yearNo orbital Starship flight has occurred yet; Flight 14, planned as Starship's first orbital flight, slipped within the window from September 22nd, 2026 to September 28th, 2026.
Falcon 9 is on pace for over 110 launches in 2026 but its second stage is expended, so it does not count. The near-zero current cadence of a fully reusable heavy launcher is unchanged.
3 searches, 2 sources:
- Starship flight test September 2026
- SpaceX Falcon 9 launch count 2026 total
- Starship flight 14 delay date September 2026 tower catch
- https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-next-starship-launch-now-on-sept-28-for-1st-orbital-flight
- https://mynews13.com/fl/orlando/space/2026/09/18/spacex-to-do-first-orbital-flight-test-for-starship
A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flightFlight 13 on July 24th, 2026 lost the booster on an ocean-splashdown attempt and landed the ship in the ocean rather than catching it.
Reporting from September 15th, 2026 to September 18th, 2026 confirms the now-delayed Flight 14 (September 28th, 2026) will attempt ocean splashdowns for both stages, not tower catches; the first ship-catch attempt has slipped to the undated Flight 15.
3 searches, 3 sources:
- Starship catch ship tower recovery 2026
- Starship flight 13 booster catch result July 2026
- Starship flight 14 delay date September 2026 tower catch
- https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-next-starship-launch-now-on-sept-28-for-1st-orbital-flight
- https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/09/15/starship-14-launch-delayed/
- https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2026/07/starship-flight-13-flight/
A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbitThe dedicated Starship-to-Starship propellant transfer demonstration remains scheduled no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2026 with no firm date; nothing new appeared in the past week.
2 searches:
- Starship propellant transfer demo Artemis HLS 2026
- Starship propellant transfer demo mission launch date update 2026
A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly againNo new lunar-landing news appeared in the past week; Artemis III remains redefined as a 2027 test mission with the first crewed landing pushed to Artemis IV around 2028, per reporting that predates this window.
3 searches:
- Artemis III schedule status September 2026
- Blue Moon MK2 crewed lunar landing schedule 2026
- NASA Artemis III redefined orbital test commercial landers announcement date 2026
Mass to low Earth orbit is sold for less than two hundred dollars a kilogramNo published price list or signed public contract at 200 dollars per kilogram or less appeared in the five-week window; market trackers still put actual launch costs around 2,700 to 3,000 dollars per kilogram for most providers.
2 searches:
- SpaceX Starship price per kg to orbit 2026 announcement
- Space Launch Cost Comparison 2026 prices by vehicle
A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched partsNothing in the five-week window shows a structure over 100 metres assembled in orbit from five or more separate launches; precursor projects (a 1.4 metre DARPA truss demo, a planned 40 metre Orbital Assembly proof of concept) remain far smaller or unflown.
2 searches:
- large structure assembled in orbit 2026 robotic assembly
- Starlab Orbital Reef large space station assembly 2026 news
A hundred tonnes of material dug or made on the Moon are delivered to orbit in one yearNo evidence of lunar-origin material delivered to orbit at scale in the five-week window; lunar resource extraction remains at small-contract, technology-development stage.
2 searches:
- lunar regolith material delivered to orbit ISRU 2026
- Interlune lunar helium-3 NASA contract 2026
Category: power off Earth
E, Energy · 4 events readA single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbitNo operator or independent report of a single spacecraft generating and consuming a megawatt continuously in orbit; megawatt-class solar and nuclear-electric concepts remain in the 2028 to 2032 planning stage.
2 searches:
- spacecraft megawatt power orbit 2026
- satellite 1 MW electrical power generation orbit September 2026
A nuclear reactor runs on the lunar surface for a yearNASA's SPARC or Lunar Reactor-1 solicitation for a 20 kilowatt lunar flight system remains a draft as of September 1st, 2026, with no contractor selected; the January 2026 NASA-DOE agreement targeting a reactor by 2030 remains the operative plan.
This is procurement-process news, not hardware progress toward operation.
4 searches, 2 sources:
- NASA Fission Surface Power lunar reactor 2026 update
- DOE NASA lunar nuclear reactor contract news September 2026
- Fission Surface Power award industry August 2026
- lunar reactor NASA news 2026 contract selection
- https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2026/09/01/what-does-nasas-sparc-lunar-reactor-procurement-reveal-about-lunar-reactor-1/
- https://www.ans.org/news/article-7674/nasa-doe-solidify-collaboration-on-a-lunar-surface-reactor/
High-temperature superconducting wire costs a tenth of what it does todayNo published price list or procurement record shows a tenfold drop in high-temperature superconducting tape price in the window; volume prices remain around 150 to 300 dollars per kiloamp-metre against a 50 dollar target.
2 searches:
- high temperature superconducting wire price 2026 per kiloamp-metre
- HTS tape cost decline REBCO 2026 manufacturing scale
A fusion power plant delivers net electricity to a gridOn September 8th, 2026 Helion's public affairs director publicly walked back the company's 2028 target for full operation of its 50 megawatt Microsoft power purchase agreement.
Commonwealth Fusion's grid-interconnection application, filed before this window, remains in an early multi-year review. No fusion plant has exported net electricity to any grid.
2 searches, 2 sources:
- fusion power plant net electricity grid 2026
- Commonwealth Fusion Helion TAE grid electricity September 2026
- https://www.axios.com/pro/climate-deals/2026/09/08/helion-energy-fusion-net-electricity-date-year
- https://world-nuclear-news.org/articles/grid-connection-requested-for-us-fusion-power-plant
Category: fast ships
D, Drive · 5 events readA nuclear-powered engine produces a kilometre per second of velocity change in spaceDRACO remains cancelled after its FY2026 budget was zeroed in 2025, with no formal successor.
NASA ran a ground cold-flow test campaign from July to September 2026 on a nuclear-electric propulsion engineering unit, and the Space Reactor-1 Freedom demonstrator still targets a 2028 launch. No in-space orbit change has occurred.
2 searches, 2 sources:
- nuclear thermal propulsion DRACO successor program 2026
- nuclear electric propulsion spacecraft demonstration news September 2026
- https://phys.org/news/2026-01-nasa-advances-space-nuclear-propulsion.html
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Reactor%E2%80%911_Freedom
Nuclear propulsion is used on several missions a yearNo nuclear-propelled mission beyond low Earth orbit has flown yet; the earliest demonstrators still target 2028 or later, so nothing bears on a three-missions-a-year cadence.
1 search:
- nuclear propulsion multiple missions per year deep space 2026
A crew lands on Mars and returns to EarthNo new developments appeared in the window; SpaceX's announcement pushing a crewed Mars mission to roughly 2031 to 2033 dates to February 2026, before this window, and NASA and SpaceX focus remains on lunar Artemis missions.
3 searches:
- crewed Mars mission news September 2026
- SpaceX Starship Mars crew timeline 2026 update
- Mars mission news August September 2026 crew announcement
An engine with both high thrust and high exhaust speed fires in spacePulsar Fusion's Sunbird first-plasma milestone, a ground test with thrust and exhaust-speed measurement still pending, occurred on March 25th, 2026, before this window; nothing new appeared in the current window.
2 searches:
- exotic propulsion exhaust speed thrust test 2026 space
- Pulsar Fusion Sunbird first plasma date MARS conference thrust
A site beyond the Earth-Moon system is crewed without a break for a yearNo site beyond the Earth-Moon system is crewed at all; the lunar Gateway, itself only cislunar, still plans stays of 30 to 60 days rather than continuous year-long occupation.
2 searches:
- Gateway lunar Mars long duration crew rotation deep space habitat 2026
- asteroid belt outpost crewed station beyond moon 2026 plan
Category: bodies that hold up
B, Biology · 9 events readA mammal is conceived, born, and weaned in partial gravityNo peer-reviewed report of a full gestation-to-weaning cycle in partial gravity appeared in the window; a March 2026 mouse-muscle study and a China Tiangong mouse-embryo experiment both predate the window and neither covers birth or weaning.
3 searches:
- mice gestation partial gravity centrifuge space 2026
- mammal born weaned artificial gravity ISS lunar Mars study 2026
- mouse embryo space station news September 2026
A person lives a full year in partial gravity and comes home without disqualifying harmChina's Shenzhou-23 crew, launched May 24th, 2026, includes a planned year-long stay, and NASA published cardiovascular and joint health findings in August and September 2026, but all of this is in microgravity aboard Tiangong or the space station, not the partial gravity the criterion requires.
2 searches:
- astronaut year long mission health results 2026
- China lunar base crew moon 2026 stay duration
A child is born off Earth and raised there through early childhoodNo pregnancy or birth off Earth was reported in the window; only speculative commentary pieces exist, confirming no such birth has occurred as of September 2026.
1 search:
- child born off Earth space station Moon Mars 2026
A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravityNo crewed spin-gravity flight occurred in the window.
Blue Origin's uncrewed NS-29 capsule spun cargo only for about two minutes of lunar gravity, before this window, and Vast's crewed artificial-gravity demonstration remains a plan targeted for the first quarter of 2027.
4 searches:
- crewed spin gravity demonstration spacecraft rotating module 2026
- Vast Haven artificial gravity module crew September 2026
- Blue Origin NS-29 spin lunar gravity simulation capsule crew
- artificial gravity spacecraft crew test news September 2026
People live for a year in a spinning habitat with Earth-normal gravityNo rotating Earth-gravity habitat exists or is occupied; Orbital Assembly's Voyager Station remains an unbuilt design study, with nothing new in the window.
1 search:
- rotating space habitat Earth gravity occupied 2026
Humans can live off Earth long term, by partial gravity or by a spinning habitatThis node resolves only if B-human-year-in-partial-gravity-without-disqualifying-harm or B-earth-gravity-habitat-occupied-for-a-year resolves; both were checked above and remain open, so nothing to search independently.
0 searches:
A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by halfThe relevant publications found, a February 2026 shielding-experiment design paper and a modeling study claiming a 50 percent dose reduction, both predate the window and are design or ground studies, not a beyond-low-Earth-orbit flight measurement.
1 search:
- radiation shielding deep space measurement peer-reviewed 2026
A crew off Earth lives for a year with most of its food produced on site and its water and air recycledNo off-Earth crew reported a twelve-month period meeting the calorie and recycling thresholds in the window; China's Yuegong-1 closed-loop results are ground-based simulations from 2017 and 2018, not off Earth.
2 searches:
- closed loop life support system crew recycling year mission 2026
- Yuegong bioregenerative life support experiment 2026 China crew
A treatment is approved that makes people substantially more resistant to chronic space radiationNo regulator approval or agency crew-health-standard adoption of a chronic-radiation-resistance treatment was found; radioprotectors for chronic low-dose cosmic-ray exposure remain in early research.
1 search:
- radiation protective drug gene therapy approved astronauts 2026
Category: a reason to go
M, Motive · 4 events readA commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigationNo new disclosure of 10 million dollars or more in a single year of orbital computing, manufacturing, or processing revenue appeared in the past week; the one in-window item, a 1.9 million dollar Space Force research award to Orbital Composites, is a development grant for ground-based work, not orbital customer revenue.
4 searches:
- in-space manufacturing revenue contract 2026
- Varda Space Industries revenue customer September 2026
- Varda United Semiconductors OR Axiom Space news September 2026
- September 2026 space manufacturing orbit contract announcement
A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the groundNo kilowatt-scale orbit-to-ground power beam was confirmed in the past week; Japan's OHISAMA demonstration and Aetherflux's laser demo both remain pre-launch.
4 searches:
- space-based solar power beaming kilowatt demonstration 2026
- wireless power transmission satellite ground receiver 2026
- Aetherflux power beaming demonstration launch status 2026
- OHISAMA launch news
A hundred people are living and working off Earth at the same time, for payAs of September 18th, 2026, only 10 people are in space, all government astronauts split between the space station and Tiangong, far below the 100-person threshold.
Vast's Haven-1 commercial station, the nearest-term new paid-crew site, has slipped from 2026 to the first quarter of 2027.
2 searches, 2 sources:
- ISS crew Tiangong crew count number of people in space September 2026
- commercial space station crew astronauts working 2026 Vast Haven-1
- https://boingboing.net/2026/09/18/only-four-countries-have-humans-in-space-right-now.html
- https://payloadspace.com/vast-delays-haven-1-launch-to-2027/
Something mined or made off Earth is sold at a profitIndustry coverage continues to describe off-Earth extraction as pre-revenue through at least 2028; no company reported profitable off-Earth-sourced product sales in the window.
1 search:
- space mining profit lunar resources 2026 revenue exceeds cost
Category: governments
R, Regime · 5 events readA crewed lunar program keeps flying across two changes of its governmentArtemis hardware progress continued in the window (the Artemis IV SLS boattail arrived at Kennedy Space Center on August 31st, 2026, and Artemis III stacking and an Orion trajectory fix were reported in September), and the proposed FY2027 budget raises Artemis funding from about 7.8 to 8.5 billion dollars, with a 2025 reconciliation bill already locking in roughly 4.1 billion dollars a year for SLS and Orion through fiscal year 2029.
China's Long March 10 and Mengzhou hardware also continues testing toward a 2029-2030 crewed landing with no funding disruption reported. None of this yet tests a transition across a change of government, so it does not move the number.
3 searches, 3 sources:
- Artemis program funding cancellation NASA budget 2026 2027
- China crewed lunar landing program funding 2026 Long March 10
- Artemis SLS Orion funding news August September 2026
- https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2026/09/artemis-iii-sls-stacking-artemis-ii-orion-fix/
- https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/trump-fy2027-budget-supports-moon-missions-but-cuts-everything-else/
- https://spacenews.com/china-targets-2026-for-first-long-march-10-launch-new-lunar-crew-spacecraft-flight/
Space spending recovers within three years of the next recessionThe National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared a recession in 2026; the US remains in the expansion dated from April 2020, so there is no recession to test the node against.
1 search:
- US recession NBER 2026 declared
The major space powers are bound by a ban on debris-creating anti-satellite testsNo new debris-creating anti-satellite test by the United States, China, or Russia was reported in the window, and no treaty progress surfaced.
A September 16th, 2026 piece on India's growing anti-satellite capability is tangential, since India is not one of the three powers the criterion names.
1 search, 1 source:
- anti-satellite test ASAT September 2026
- https://www.chinatechnews.com/2026/09/16/129273-indias-asat-capability-and-the-emerging-space-war-dynamics-in-the-ccp-era
The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off EarthA September 19th, 2026 legal analysis and other 2026 commentary confirm the United States (the Artemis Accords, 67 signatories) and China (the International Lunar Research Station coalition with Russia) remain on separate legal tracks for off-Earth resource rights, with commentators calling for a treaty that does not yet exist.
This confirms continued divergence rather than any movement toward alignment.
1 search, 1 source:
- outer space treaty resource rights US China lunar mining law 2026
- https://politics-government.news-articles.net/content/2026/09/19/the-legal-paradox-asteroid-resource-appropriation-vs-extraction.html
An off-Earth site accepts people as permanent residentsNo off-Earth site has any resident yet; the coverage found, NASA's 2030s moon base plan, SpaceX's stated ten-year lunar-city ambition, and Mars sustained-presence projections for the 2030s, is forward-looking intent, not an actual residency event.
1 search:
- permanent residents Moon Mars settlement 2026
Category: the Contact Clause
C, Contact Clause · 4 events readA non-human mind produces knowledge beyond usOpenAI published a manuscript on August 1st, 2026 with ten pure-math and theoretical-computer-science results, each carrying a Lean 4 machine-checkable certificate not fully checkable by a human reader, and on September 8th, 2026 announced a large-scale agent run producing a Lean-verified result bearing on the Navier-Stokes Millennium Problem.
The Navier-Stokes claim is disputed on priority grounds by other researchers and neither result has yet been acknowledged in the peer-reviewed record as beyond human capability, so the criterion is not yet met, though the direction is consistent with the already-high estimate.
4 searches, 3 sources:
- AI system mathematics proof discovery September 2026 peer-reviewed beyond human
- AlphaEvolve OR AlphaProof OR DeepMind new mathematical result 2026
- AI not human-checkable beyond human mathematics result 2026
- OpenAI Navier-Stokes proof September 2026 date announcement
- https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/openai-navier-stokes-math-problem-solved.html
- https://kingy.ai/blog/navier-stokes-ai-proof-claims-dispute/
Humans learn from itNo event in the window shows a specific AI-originated concept, one humans had not reached, crossing into textbook or majority-of-papers status; AlphaFold's roughly 40 percent share of new protein structures and broad tool adoption are pre-existing gradual trends, not a new event, and AlphaFold is a tool humans could in principle have built rather than a concept AI originated beyond human reach.
4 searches:
- AI-discovered method becomes standard textbook adopted field 2026
- AlphaFold OR AlphaEvolve technique now standard OR widely adopted researchers 2026
- scientists adopt AI-derived concept majority of papers 2026
- AI discovered concept now taught textbook 2026 August September
An intelligence not descended from us is detectedNo new technosignature or biosignature claim appeared in the window; a K2-18b technosignature null result and null radio searches of interstellar object 3I/ATLAS both predate the window, and a September 18th, 2026 commentary piece speculated about false alarms without reporting a new finding.
4 searches:
- biosignature exoplanet JWST claim September 2026
- SETI technosignature detection claim August September 2026
- K2-18b OR exoplanet life signs confirmed peer review 2026
- 3I/ATLAS interstellar object technosignature update September 2026
A message from elsewhere is understoodNo claim of received and understood knowledge of non-human, non-human-built origin appeared in the window; only administrative news, an overhaul of the International Academy of Astronautics' post-detection protocol between June and August 2026, and continued absence of evidence per NASA and the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office.
2 searches:
- extraterrestrial message signal decoded 2026 September
- non-human intelligence contact evidence 2026 peer-reviewed