The tree · Motive · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
A commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigation
Satellites already earn money by relaying signals and taking pictures. The new thing is paying for work done in orbit: computing in an orbital data centre, manufacturing crystals or fibre in free fall, testing materials. The first sizeable paying customer is the sign that orbit has a second economy, which is what makes megawatt spacecraft and orbital assembly worth building.
What counts as it having happened
A company publicly reports, by contract announcement or financial filing, at least ten million dollars in a single year of paid revenue from a customer for computing, manufacturing, or processing performed in orbit.
Settled by: The company's public contract announcement or financial filing
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 90% | 93% | 95% | 96% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Orbital-compute contracts are already announced and the bar is one company, one year.
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The record itself is data/M-motive.toml in the public repository.