The tree · Window · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved for
Today a drug must target a named disease. There is no approvable indication for slowing aging itself, which is why aging drugs are tested against single diseases and why companies avoid the field. In 2015 the US regulator agreed that one trial could use a composite of age-related diseases as its primary endpoint, which is the precedent; what does not yet exist is guidance saying a drug can be approved, and labelled, for slowing aging. That is what changes what gets funded and trialed.
What counts as it having happened
The US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency publishes guidance stating that slowing aging, extending healthy lifespan, or delaying a composite of age-related diseases is an indication for which a drug can be approved and labelled. Accepting such a composite as a trial endpoint, which the US regulator did in 2015, does not count.
Settled by: The regulator's own published guidance
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 60% | 70% | 85% | 90% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-08.
Why these numbers: The 2015 composite-endpoint precedent and a growing field make guidance within forty-five years somewhat more likely than not; every added decade of trials and lobbying raises it.
Notes
Checked 2026-09-08 against the trial's own design papers and the National Institute on Aging's page on regulator review of aging-related applications: the regulator approved the trial's composite design and the trial 'holds the potential' to lead to aging being considered an indication, which confirms that no approvable indication exists yet.
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The record itself is data/W-window.toml in the public repository.