The tree · Launch · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
A fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar year
Launch cost is set less by the rocket than by how often the same rocket flies. A fully reusable heavy launcher (both stages recovered and reflown) reaching a hundred orbital flights in a single year is the point at which mass to orbit stops being the constraint on everything downstream: stations, habitats, and lunar supply all assume it.
What counts as it having happened
In one calendar year, a launch vehicle whose first and second stages are both designed for recovery and reuse completes at least 100 orbital launches, counting only flights that reached orbit. Test flights that reached orbit count; suborbital flights and failures do not.
Settled by: Public orbital launch logs, checked against the operator's own flight manifest
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 90% | 93% | 95% | 96% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: The partially reusable predecessor passed a hundred flights a year in 2023; full reuse plus a constellation and lunar manifest gets there within the decade, and forty-five years is a long time to miss.
Notes
Written 2026-09-08 as the schema's worked example. Probability comes in Phase 3. Edge drawn at step 7: a hundred flights a year of a fully reusable launcher needs both stages to have been recovered at least once.
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The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.