The tree · Regime · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
A crewed lunar program keeps flying across two changes of its government
Every large space program since Apollo has been redrawn or cancelled by a new administration. A program that keeps its funding and keeps flying hardware across two changes of the government that pays for it has become an institution rather than a policy, which is what a multi-decade build needs. Any nation's or company's crewed lunar program counts, because Tier 1 is an outpost by anyone; the US program is the one to watch first.
What counts as it having happened
A crewed lunar program (a national program or a company's program with a national anchor customer) receives its yearly funding and flies crewed hardware in each of two successive governments after the one in office when it first flew crew. For the US program, counting from 2026, that means two successive presidential administrations after the current one. A program that is cancelled and later restarted, or a different nation's program that reaches the mark, resolves the node when it gets there.
Settled by: The funding nation's appropriations records and the program's flight record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 80% | 85% | 90% | 92% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: With any nation's program counting and a restart still able to resolve it, the question is whether some crewed lunar program anywhere becomes an institution over forty-five years; two rival national programs and a flying commercial lander make that likely, and the longer windows add more attempts. Proposed with the rewording, 2026-09-19.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | resolution | US program only; a single cut before two administrations had passed resolved the node no for good | any nation's or company's crewed lunar program; a cancelled program can be restarted and a different program can reach the mark | First run (docs/runs/2026-09-19-first-run.md): as a Tier 1 requirement and a hard dependency of lunar material at scale, a permanent no from one US budget cut foreclosed an outpost by anyone. John ruled 2026-09-19 to reword to durable, nation-agnostic form. |
| 2026-09-19 | probability | 0.60 flat across scenarios | 0.75 / 0.80 / 0.85 / 0.90 / 0.92 | Re-estimated against the reworded criterion, which can resolve later and by more programs; no longer flat because the longer windows now add attempts. |
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The record itself is data/R-regime.toml in the public repository.