The tree · Energy · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
High-temperature superconducting wire costs a tenth of what it does today
The strong, light magnets that compact fusion, magnetic radiation shielding, and some drive concepts all need are made of high-temperature superconducting tape, and its price is what keeps those magnets rare. A tenfold fall from the 2026 price puts a fusion plant's magnets, or a shield around a crew cabin, within an ordinary project budget. This node feeds nodes in biology and drive as well as fusion.
What counts as it having happened
Published price lists or public procurement records show high-temperature superconducting tape sold in production quantities at one tenth or less of its 2026 price, measured the way the industry prices it (per unit of current the tape carries over a metre, the kiloamp-metre) and adjusted for inflation.
Settled by: Vendor price lists and public procurement or agency cost reports
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 65% | 80% | 90% | 92% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Tape prices have been falling and fusion demand is scaling production, but a full tenfold in real terms needs a manufacturing shift, not just volume; the most uncertain number in this group.
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The record itself is data/E-energy.toml in the public repository.