The tree · Motive · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
A hundred people are living and working off Earth at the same time, for pay
The space station holds seven. A hundred people employed off Earth at once, whatever the mix of stations and surface bases, means there are jobs out there rather than missions, which is the economic shape of Tier 1 and the precondition for anyone rotating through.
What counts as it having happened
On a single day, at least one hundred people are off Earth in paid roles, counting all stations and surface sites, according to the operators' public crew records.
Settled by: Operators' public crew records, tallied
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 72% | 85% | 93% | 95% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Private stations and a lunar base get to dozens; a hundred needs a reason beyond government seats. An outside model's 30 percent (Astra, 2026-09-19) was for ten thousand self-sustaining residents, a far higher bar.
Notes
Edges drawn at step 7 (2026-09-08): a hundred people off Earth at once needs launch cadence, and getting there takes long enough that funding will have to survive a downturn on the way.
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The record itself is data/M-motive.toml in the public repository.