The tree · Contact Clause · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
A non-human mind produces knowledge beyond us
An artificial system delivers a scientific or mathematical result that humans could not have produced and cannot fully check by hand, verified by machine and confirmed against nature. Plausibly already resolving; the first probabilities session decides how close.
What counts as it having happened
A result in mathematics or the natural sciences is produced by an artificial system, is verified by machine checking or by experiment, is acknowledged in the peer-reviewed record as beyond what human researchers had been able to produce, and its full derivation is not checkable by a human reader without machine assistance.
Settled by: The peer-reviewed record and the verification artefact
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 95% | 97% | 98% | 98% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Plausibly resolving now; the remaining doubt is whether the record will say beyond human researchers in so many words.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/C-contact.toml in the public repository.