The tree · Window · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
A randomized human trial shows one drug delays several age-related diseases at once
The Targeting Aging with Metformin trial and others like it test whether one cheap drug can delay the arrival of heart disease, cancer, dementia, and death taken together in older adults. A positive result is the first proof in humans that aging can be slowed as a whole rather than one disease at a time.
What counts as it having happened
A randomized, placebo-controlled trial of at least a thousand older adults reports a statistically significant delay in a combined measure, fixed before the trial began, of several age-related diseases or death (a pre-registered composite endpoint), published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Settled by: The trial's peer-reviewed primary publication and its pre-registration record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 75% | 80% | 90% | 90% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-08.
Why these numbers: The metformin trial alone is perhaps two in five to report positive around 2031, but a dozen other composite trials over the following decades make at least one success likely.
Notes
Checked twice on 2026-09-08: no primary results publication for the Targeting Aging with Metformin trial (about 3,000 adults aged 65 to 79, four years, composite of heart disease, cancer, dementia, and death) was found in journal, registry, or sponsor sources; aggregator sites claiming a positive result are unconfirmed. Stays open. Re-check at the first quarterly scan.
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The record itself is data/W-window.toml in the public repository.