The tree · Launch · Happens to the world · Plays out over the whole window
A hundred tonnes a year of material from the Moon or an asteroid are delivered to orbit
The either-route step for off-Earth material at scale. A product mined or made off Earth needs a supply of off-Earth material in orbit, and it does not matter which body the material comes from. Resolves if either route does: a hundred tonnes a year from the Moon, or a hundred tonnes a year from an asteroid. Written under the function-over-route rule (docs/methodology.md).
The test: what counts as it having happened
Either of the two route nodes it depends on has resolved yes.
Settled by: The resolving route node's own source
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 25th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Resolves whenever either route does; certainty here means the number is carried entirely by the two route nodes.
What this one is worth
If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.0% (−0.5 points).
| Longevity scenario | baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The headline as it stands | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled yes now | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled no now | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the
ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a
reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run
2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and
playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per
scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about
0.10 points is inside the noise rather than
a finding.
The last 2 checks
Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.
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2026-11-01 Nothing new
Neither route node has resolved and no search found any off-Earth material delivered to orbit, so the node is unchanged. Probability is carried by the two route nodes.
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2026-10-04 Nothing new
Neither route node has resolved; no lunar or asteroid material delivered to orbit was reported in the window.
Notes
Added September 25th, 2026 under candidate 7 of docs/proposal-function-over-route-2026-09-25.md, I approved September 25th, 2026. M-off-earth-product-sold-at-a-profit depends on this step instead of the lunar route alone. Tier 3 still lists the lunar route itself among its requirements, so the asteroid route can lift the product step but not the Belt tier; whether Tier 3 should list this step instead was not part of that decision.
Think this estimate is wrong?
Here's how to tell me, and
what happens next.
The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.