The tree · Biology · World event · Root: on the scale of the whole window
A child is born off Earth and raised there through early childhood
The marker that separates a settlement from a work camp, and the criterion Tier 2 uses. Early settlements may forbid it for years, so it resolves late even if the biology allows it.
What counts as it having happened
A child is born at a site off Earth and lives there continuously to at least age five, with the birth and residence publicly documented by the operating agency or company.
Settled by: Public records of the operating agency or company, confirmed by independent reporting
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 22% | 35% | 65% | 75% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-08.
Why these numbers: Given both the animal result and the human year, the remaining barriers are policy and ethics, which early settlements are likely to hold for decades; raising a child needs a settlement, not a base.
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The record itself is data/B-biology.toml in the public repository.