The tree · Energy · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
A single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbit
The space station, the largest thing ever flown, makes about a tenth of a megawatt. Orbital data centres, large electric tugs, and any industrial process in space start at a megawatt. Several companies plan megawatt-class solar spacecraft within a few years, so this is the near-term marker that power in space is scaling.
What counts as it having happened
One spacecraft in orbit generates and consumes at least one megawatt of electrical power continuously for thirty days, confirmed by the operator and consistent with independent observation of the vehicle.
Settled by: The operator's records and independent observation
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 90% | 93% | 95% | 96% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Several companies have megawatt-class vehicles funded for the late 2020s, and orbital computing gives the power a customer.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/E-energy.toml in the public repository.