The tree · Regime · World event · Root: on the scale of the whole window
The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth
Nobody will spend a decade building a mine on the Moon if another power can call the ore stolen. A common framework for who may extract and own off-Earth resources, whether a treaty or matching national laws, is what lets the motive nodes attract long money.
What counts as it having happened
A treaty in force, or national laws whose provisions mutually recognise each other, gives the United States and China (and at least one of the European Union, India, or Russia) the same rules for extracting and owning resources at off-Earth sites, as documented in the treaty record or the enacted statutes.
Settled by: The treaty record or the enacted statutes
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45% | 55% | 70% | 85% | 90% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Two rival frameworks today; convergence usually follows the first real mine. An outside model's 70 percent by 2070 (Astra, 2026-09-19) was for transferable rights among major jurisdictions without requiring the United States and China to match.
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The record itself is data/R-regime.toml in the public repository.