The tree · Drive · Happens to the world · Plays out over the whole window
Three missions in one year reach the asteroid belt within twelve months of leaving Earth
The Tier 3 criterion in propulsion terms: transit fast enough that people go out there to work. A Slow Expanse needs ships that reach the Belt in months rather than years, often enough that going is routine. Nuclear propulsion is one way to get there and high-power solar-electric propulsion is another; chemical rockets with refilling in orbit take well over a year to the Belt on the usual path. This is the function step, written so that any propulsion counts (the function-over-route rule, docs/methodology.md), with the two propulsion routes under it.
The test: what counts as it having happened
In one calendar year, at least three separate missions, crewed or cargo, each arrive at a destination in the main asteroid belt or farther from the Sun (rendezvous with, orbit or land on a body at least 2.1 astronomical units from the Sun, or on a moon of such a body; a flyby does not count) within twelve months of leaving Earth orbit, by any propulsion, confirmed by the operators and independent tracking of the vehicles.
Settled by: Operators' mission records and independent tracking
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 62% | 76% | 87% | 91% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 25th, 2026.
Why these numbers: First estimate, September 25th, 2026, proposed by Claude with the node and accepted by me October 2nd, 2026. Given that some fast propulsion is already in routine use somewhere in the inner solar system, the question is whether anyone sends three ships a year to the Belt on it; that needs a reason to go, which the Belt tier's other steps (an outer site, a product sold) are about. Even odds by 2071. One thing it can cost: a world whose outer site is Mars and whose fast ships go only there does not meet this step.
What this one is worth
If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.0% (−0.5 points).
| Longevity scenario | baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The headline as it stands | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled yes now | 0.5% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 11% | 16% |
| If this settled no now | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the
ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a
reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run
2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and
playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per
scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about
0.10 points is inside the noise rather than
a finding.
The last 2 checks
Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.
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2026-11-01 Nothing new
No mission reaching the belt or beyond within twelve months of leaving Earth orbit turned up; results were old Psyche and UAE belt-mission coverage (long cruises) and concept studies.
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2026-10-04 Nothing new
Starship Flight 14 reached orbit on September 28th, 2026 and was cut short, but no mission reached the asteroid belt within twelve months of leaving Earth; Psyche arrives in 2029 after a multi-year cruise.
Notes
Added September 25th, 2026 under candidate 6 of docs/proposal-function-over-route-2026-09-25.md, I approved September 25th, 2026, with the pass counting as the review a tier change needs. Replaces D-nuclear-propulsion-in-routine-use in Tier 3's requirements (data/tiers.toml); the tier's definition now reads 'transit fast enough that people go out there to work'. The criterion's numbers (under twelve months to the Belt, three missions a year, crewed or cargo) were set in the handoff; the 2.1-astronomical-unit edge of the Belt and the flyby exclusion are Claude's drafting.
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The record itself is data/D-drive.toml in the public repository.