The tree · Launch · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
Mass to low Earth orbit is sold for less than two hundred dollars a kilogram
Today's price for a full flight runs a few thousand dollars per kilogram. Two hundred, in 2026 dollars, is roughly the point at which a tonne to orbit costs less than a mid-range car and building large things in space becomes a question of will rather than money. Reusable heavy launchers flying often are the only known route there.
What counts as it having happened
A launch provider sells, by public price list or a signed contract made public, a full manifest to low Earth orbit at two hundred 2026 dollars or less per kilogram of payload.
Settled by: The provider's published price list or a public contract record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 80% | 88% | 93% | 95% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Flight rate is the mechanism, but a public sold price is a demand-and-competition question and a single provider can hold price above cost for decades; an outside model (Astra, 2026-09-19) put a hundred dollars at 75 percent by 2070 unconditionally.
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The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.