The tree · Contact Clause · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
Humans learn from it
Beyond receiving a result: humans come to understand something conceptual they could not have reached, in a way that changes how human science is done.
What counts as it having happened
A concept or method that originated with an artificial system, and that the record shows human researchers had not reached, is adopted as a standard part of how a scientific field works, as evidenced by its use in textbooks or in the majority of new papers in that field.
Settled by: The field's textbooks and publication record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 88% | 93% | 96% | 97% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Adoption lags production by a decade or two, but forty-five years is long enough for one field to reorganise around one machine-born method.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/C-contact.toml in the public repository.