The tree · Launch · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched parts
The orbital-construction node of the habitat branch. The space station is about a hundred metres long and took a decade of crewed assembly flights. A spinning habitat, a large power station, or a shipyard needs structures at least that size assembled mostly by machines from parts launched cheaply. This is the step from launching things to building things.
What counts as it having happened
A single connected structure with a longest dimension over one hundred metres is assembled in orbit from parts delivered on at least five separate launches, with most of the joining done by robots or automated systems, confirmed by the operator and independent tracking.
Settled by: The operator's records and independent orbital tracking
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 70% | 85% | 93% | 95% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Possible at today's prices, as the station proved, but nobody has a customer for it yet; the likelihood rides on cheap launch without depending on it.
Notes
Drafted as depending on the two-hundred-dollar launch price; loosened at step 7 (2026-09-08) because a structure this size could be assembled at today's prices with enough money, as the space station was. Cheap launch makes it likely, not possible.
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The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.