The tree · Window · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
The first drug is approved whose purpose is to slow aging, not to treat one disease
The point where slowing aging becomes ordinary medicine that a doctor can prescribe. This is what moves the baseline scenario toward the moderate one for everyone, not only trial participants.
What counts as it having happened
The US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approves a treatment whose labeled indication is slowing aging, extending healthy lifespan, or delaying a composite of age-related diseases.
Settled by: The regulator's approval record and the product label
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 65% | 75% | 90% | 92% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-08.
Why these numbers: Given a regulator has opened the door, a first approval follows within a decade or two more often than not; the gap to certainty is trials that fail on safety in the old.
Notes
Almost certainly also depends on a positive composite trial; whether that is a hard dependency is for step 7.
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The record itself is data/W-window.toml in the public repository.