The tree · Access · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
A seat to orbit is sold to a private person for under a million dollars
Private orbital seats cost tens of millions today. Under a million is the point where an orbital flight is a serious personal purchase rather than a billionaire's, and the A1 tier becomes reachable by saving rather than by fortune.
What counts as it having happened
A commercial provider sells, by public price or a publicly reported contract, a seat on an orbital flight to a private individual for under one million 2026 dollars, and the flight takes place.
Settled by: The provider's public price or reported contract, and the flight record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 72% | 85% | 93% | 95% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Launch cost is a small part of a seat's price; the rest is the vehicle, training and insurance, which fall with volume but slowly.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
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The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.