The tree · Access · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
Companies sell survival and emergency training to commercial spaceflight crews
Government astronauts get survival training from the military and their agencies. Commercial crews, so far, get whatever their operator arranges. An industry that sells survival, egress, and contingency training to commercial crews is the civilian door that a military survival instructor could walk through.
What counts as it having happened
At least two companies publicly offer survival or contingency training to commercial spaceflight crews and each has at least two paying operator customers, by public announcement or contract.
Settled by: Public announcements and contract records
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 60% | 75% | 88% | 92% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Needs several commercial operators flying crews at once; today there are two, and each trains in house.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.