The tree · Access · Choice point · Mid: 5 to 20 years
Separate at the six-year mark into civilian space or defence work
The other option at the first fork: take the survival-instructor experience into civilian spaceflight training, or defence work that gets closer to the goal than staying would.
What counts as it having happened
Separation at the end of the first six-year term followed by civilian employment in space or defence work, in the service and employment records.
Settled by: The service and employment records
Probability, by longevity scenario
This is a choice point, something John decides rather than something that happens to the world, so it is never given a probability. In an ordinary run of the tree it is set to the current plan; the decision comparison forces each option in turn and reports how far the headline number moves. The other option at this fork: Re-enlist at the six-year mark.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.