The tree · Access · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
Someone moves from military survival instruction into training spaceflight crews
Proof that the path exists: a person with the same qualification takes a role training crews for a spaceflight operator or a training company. Once one person has done it, it is a career move rather than a hope.
What counts as it having happened
Public reporting or an operator's announcement names a person whose prior role was military survival instruction and whose new role is training spaceflight crews.
Settled by: Public reporting or the operator's announcement
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 75% | 85% | 92% | 94% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: One person, one announcement, and the skills overlap is obvious; the bar is low enough that it may already have happened without being reported.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.